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Why SanluxLtd's (SZSE:002224) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Why SanluxLtd's (SZSE:002224) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

为什么SanluxLtd(深圳证券交易所:002224)的收益不稳定只是其问题的开始
Simply Wall St ·  05/07 18:39

Sanlux Co.,Ltd's (SZSE:002224) recent weak earnings report didn't cause a big stock movement. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.

三福集团(SZSE:002224)最近的财报并没有引起股票大幅波动。我们的分析表明,除了软弱的盈利数字外,投资者还应意识到一些其他数字中的潜在弱点。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:002224 Earnings and Revenue History May 7th 2024
SZSE:002224收入和盈利历史记录2024年5月7日

Examining Cashflow Against SanluxLtd's Earnings

检查现金流与三福股份盈利的对比

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

在高金融中,用于衡量公司将报告的利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是计提比率(从现金流量中)。要获取计提比率,我们首先需要将一个期间的自由现金流减去利润,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均营运资产。这个比率告诉我们公司的利润超过了其FCF。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

因此,当一家公司的应计比率为负时,实际上被认为是一件好事,但如果应计比率为正,则是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高时会导致获利或获利增长较低。

For the year to March 2024, SanluxLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.29. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥68.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥426m in the last year. It's worth noting that SanluxLtd generated positive FCF of CN¥157m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares. The good news for shareholders is that SanluxLtd's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

对于截至2024年3月的财年,三福股份的应计比率为0.29。因此,我们可以推断出其自由现金流远远不足以覆盖其法定利润,这表明我们在对后者给予很大权重之前可能需要再三考虑。即使其报告了6880万元的利润,但自由现金流的数据表明它实际上在过去一年中烧掉了42600万元。值得注意的是,三福股份一年前曾经产生过15700万元的正现金流,所以至少他们曾经做到过。但是,故事并没有就此结束。我们还必须考虑非常规项目对法定利润(因而是应计比率)的影响,以及公司发行新股的影响。对股东来说,好消息是,三福股份的应计比率去年要好得多,因此今年的糟糕表现可能只是短期利润与自由现金流之间的不匹配。因此,一些股东可能会寻求当年更强大的现金转换率。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of SanluxLtd.

注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表强度。点击此处转到我们对三福股份资产负债表分析的页面。

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. In fact, SanluxLtd increased the number of shares on issue by 24% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out SanluxLtd's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

要理解公司的盈利增长价值,必须考虑股东利益的稀释。事实上,三福股份通过发行新股,在过去12个月内发行的股票数量增加了24%。这意味着它的盈利分为更多股份。而仅仅因为净收入而忽略稀释就像因为你有一块更大的披萨而欢欣鼓舞,而忽略了披萨现在被切成更多的块。点击此链接查看三福股份的历史每股收益增长情况。

A Look At The Impact Of SanluxLtd's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

探究三福股份盈利每股收益(EPS)的稀释影响

Unfortunately, SanluxLtd's profit is down 56% per year over three years. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we see profit is down 13%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 30% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

不幸的是,三福股份的最近三年中的利润每年下降了56%。即使仅关注过去12个月,我们也会看到利润下降了13%。可悲的是,收益进一步下降,在那段时间内下降了整整30%。因此,你可以看到这种稀释对股东产生了相当大的影响。每股收益如果三福股份的EPS能随着时间的推移而增长,那么股价朝着同向移动的可能性大大提高。但另一方面,如果获利(但不包括EPS)正在提高,我们将远不如此激动。因此,你可以说,在长期来看,每股收益比净收入更为重要,假设目标是评估一个公司的股价是否会增长。

If SanluxLtd's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

不幸的是(在短期内),三福股份的非常规项目导致其获利减少了4400万元。如果这是一个非现金负担,那么随着现金流的保持强劲,这将使应计比率变得更好,因此与令人沮丧的应计比率相结合并不好。看到非常规项目为公司带来利润损失从来不是一件好事,但好的一面是,事情可能会变得更好。当我们分析了全球大多数上市公司时,发现重要的非常规项目通常不会重复出现。毕竟,这正是会计术语的含义。截至2024年3月,三福股份有一个巨大的非常规项目开支。因此,我们可以推断出,这些非常规项目使其法定利润明显弱于否则会有的情况。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。

Unfortunately (in the short term) SanluxLtd saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥44m. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. In the twelve months to March 2024, SanluxLtd had a big unusual items expense. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

三福股份短期内绩效表现的看法

Our Take On SanluxLtd's Profit Performance

总之,三福股份的应计比率表明其法定收益不受现金流支持;但事实上非常规项目确实对收益产生了影响,如果这些非常规项目不再发生,这可能产生上行空间。而股票的稀释意味着每股收益比底线表现要弱。考虑到这些因素,我们认为三福股份的法定利润并没有过度反映该业务的真实情况。如果要深入了解三福股份,您还需要了解它目前面临的风险。请注意,我们的投资分析中,三福股份显示了4个警告信号,其中有2个不太愉快的信号......

In conclusion, SanluxLtd's accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow; but the fact unusual items actually weighed on profit may create upside if those unusual items to not recur. And the dilution means that per-share results are weaker than the bottom line might imply. Having considered these factors, we don't think SanluxLtd's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. If you want to do dive deeper into SanluxLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Be aware that SanluxLtd is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant...

我们对三福股份绩效表现的看法

Our examination of SanluxLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

我们对三福股份的研究集中在可以让其盈利看起来比它实际上更好的某些因素上。但是,如果你能把注意力集中到细枝末节上,总会发掘出更多。例如,许多人认为高股东回报率是良好商业经济的指标,而其他人则喜欢“跟着钱走”,寻找内部人在购买的股票。因此,您可能希望查看这些公司回报率高的免费收藏或内部人在购买的股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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