As Towngas Smart Energy (HKG:1083) Advances 4.2% This Past Week, Investors May Now Be Noticing the Company's Five-year Earnings Growth
As Towngas Smart Energy (HKG:1083) Advances 4.2% This Past Week, Investors May Now Be Noticing the Company's Five-year Earnings Growth
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited (HKG:1083) share price up 15% in a single quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 45%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
尽管这对一些股东来说可能还不够,但我们认为煤气智慧能源有限公司(HKG: 1083)的股价在单季度内上涨15%是件好事。但是,如果你看看过去的五年,回报并不理想。实际上,股价下跌了45%,远低于购买指数基金所能获得的回报。
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$436m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
更令人鼓舞的是,该公司的市值在过去的7天内就增加了4.36亿港元,因此让我们看看我们能否确定是什么推动了股东五年亏损。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
在他的文章中 格雷厄姆和多兹维尔的超级投资者 沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价如何并不总是合理地反映企业的价值。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
While the share price declined over five years, Towngas Smart Energy actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 1.4% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
尽管股价在五年内下跌,但煤气智慧能源实际上设法做到了 增加 每股收益平均每年增长1.4%。因此,每股收益似乎不是了解市场如何估值股票的好指南。或者,过去的增长预期可能不合理。
Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
根据这些数字,我们敢说,五年前,市场可能对预测的增长过于乐观。话虽如此,我们可以通过查看其他指标来更好地了解该股的情况。
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.
我们注意到股息一直保持健康,因此这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。尽管股价下跌的原因尚不完全明显,但仔细研究该公司的历史可能有助于解释这一点。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下图描述了收入和收入随时间推移而发生的变化(点击图片即可显示确切的数值)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240514/0-0a87ad14f7718878104a8845c531b495-0-2aa6f588c30f08ed4108db7bb0ad60d9.png/big)
Towngas Smart Energy is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
煤气智慧能源为投资者所熟知,许多聪明的分析师试图预测未来的利润水平。鉴于我们有相当多的分析师预测,这张描绘共识估计的免费图表可能值得一看。
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Towngas Smart Energy's TSR for the last 5 years was -34%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股价回报率外,投资者还应考虑股东总回报率(TSR)。基于股息再投资的假设,股东总回报率纳入了任何分拆或贴现资本筹集的价值以及任何股息。可以说,股东总回报率更全面地描述了股票产生的回报。碰巧的是,煤气智慧能源过去5年的股东总回报率为-34%,超过了前面提到的股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
While the broader market gained around 3.8% in the last year, Towngas Smart Energy shareholders lost 11% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Towngas Smart Energy (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
尽管去年整体市场上涨了约3.8%,但煤气智慧能源的股东损失了11%(甚至包括股息)。即使是优质股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在过于感兴趣之前看到企业基本指标的改善。遗憾的是,去年的业绩结束了糟糕的表现,股东在五年内每年面临6%的总亏损。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该 “在街头流血时买入”,但我们警告说,投资者应首先确保他们购买的是高质量的企业。尽管市场状况可能对股价产生的不同影响值得考虑,但还有其他因素更为重要。比如风险。每家公司都有,我们发现了 Towngas Smart Energy 的 3 个警告标志(其中 1 个有点令人担忧!)你应该知道。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果你想看看另一家公司——一家财务状况可能优异的公司——那么千万不要错过这份已经证明自己可以增加收益的公司的免费名单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。