Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Hualan Biological Engineering fair value estimate is CN¥25.65
Current share price of CN¥20.07 suggests Hualan Biological Engineering is potentially 22% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is similar to Hualan Biological Engineering's analyst price target of CN¥25.78
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Hualan Biological Engineering Inc. (SZSE:002007) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)
CN¥1.63b
CN¥2.48b
CN¥2.32b
CN¥3.10b
CN¥2.93b
CN¥2.85b
CN¥2.81b
CN¥2.82b
CN¥2.84b
CN¥2.89b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -2.80%
Est @ -1.09%
Est @ 0.11%
Est @ 0.95%
Est @ 1.53%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%
CN¥1.5k
CN¥2.1k
CN¥1.9k
CN¥2.3k
CN¥2.0k
CN¥1.8k
CN¥1.7k
CN¥1.6k
CN¥1.5k
CN¥1.4k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥18b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥62b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥29b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥47b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥20.1, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 22% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Hualan Biological Engineering as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.858. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Hualan Biological Engineering
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Balance sheet summary for 002007.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Biotechs market.
Opportunity
Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Chinese market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
See 002007's dividend history.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Hualan Biological Engineering, there are three essential elements you should assess:
Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hualan Biological Engineering that you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does 002007's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.