Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥10.63 based on Dividend Discount Model
Current share price of CN¥10.97 suggests Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd is potentially trading close to its fair value
When compared to theindustry average discount of -215%, Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600461) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
As Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd operates in the water utilities sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= CN¥0.5 / (7.4% – 2.9%)
= CN¥10.6
SHSE:600461 Discounted Cash Flow May 22nd 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Dividend information for 600461.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
600461's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 600461's earnings prospects.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
See 600461's dividend history.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd, we've compiled three further aspects you should further research:
Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Jiangxi Hongcheng EnvironmentLtd , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
