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Is YOUNGY (SZSE:002192) A Risky Investment?

Is YOUNGY (SZSE:002192) A Risky Investment?

YOUNGY(深圳证券交易所:002192)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  05/24 19:06

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that YOUNGY Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002192) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”当我们思考一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。我们注意到,YOUNGY有限公司(深圳证券交易所:002192)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务会带来多大的风险?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务会带来什么风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但是如果企业无法偿还贷款,那么债务就任其摆布。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所获。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司为了控制债务,必须以低廉的股价稀释股东。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是同时考虑其现金和债务。

How Much Debt Does YOUNGY Carry?

YOUNGY 背负了多少债务?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, YOUNGY had CN¥100.1m of debt, up from CN¥66.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥1.51b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.41b net cash.

如下所示,截至2024年3月底,YOUNGY的债务为1.001亿元人民币,高于去年同期的6600万元人民币。点击图片了解更多详情。但是,其资产负债表显示其持有151亿元人民币的现金,因此实际上拥有14.1亿元人民币的净现金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002192 Debt to Equity History May 24th 2024
SZSE: 002192 2024 年 5 月 24 日债务与股本比率的历史记录

How Strong Is YOUNGY's Balance Sheet?

YOUNGY 的资产负债表有多强?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that YOUNGY had liabilities of CN¥482.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥453.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.51b and CN¥280.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥855.9m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,YOUNGY的负债为4.823亿元人民币,一年后到期的负债为4.530亿元人民币。另一方面,它有一年内到期的151亿元现金和价值2.806亿元人民币的应收账款。所以它实际上有8.559亿元人民币 更多 流动资产超过总负债。

This surplus suggests that YOUNGY has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that YOUNGY has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

这种盈余表明YOUNGY的资产负债表比较保守,可以毫不费力地消除债务。简而言之,YOUNGY的现金多于债务这一事实可以说是一个很好的迹象,表明它可以安全地管理债务。

It is just as well that YOUNGY's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 80% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if YOUNGY can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

同样重要的是,YOUNGY的负担并不太重,因为其息税前利润比去年下降了80%。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终也可能使即使是微不足道的债务也相当危险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终,该业务的未来盈利能力将决定YOUNGY能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. YOUNGY may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, YOUNGY recorded free cash flow worth 66% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,不能用会计利润偿还债务。YOUNGY的资产负债表上可能有净现金,但看看该企业如何将其利息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其对债务的需求和管理能力。在最近三年中,鉴于自由现金流不包括利息和税收,YOUNGY录得的自由现金流占其息税前利润的66%,这几乎是正常的。这种自由现金流使公司处于有利地位,可以在适当的时候偿还债务。

Summing Up

总结

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that YOUNGY has net cash of CN¥1.41b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. The cherry on top was that in converted 66% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥159m. So we don't have any problem with YOUNGY's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for YOUNGY you should be aware of.

虽然我们同情那些认为债务令人担忧的投资者,但您应该记住,YOUNGY的净现金为14.1亿元人民币,流动资产比负债还多。最重要的是,它将息税前利润的66%转换为自由现金流,带来了1.59亿元人民币的收入。因此,我们对YOUNGY使用债务没有任何问题。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。一个很好的例子:我们已经发现了YOUNGY的3个警告信号,你应该注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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