To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after glancing at the trends within IPG Photonics (NASDAQ:IPGP), we weren't too hopeful.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for IPG Photonics, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.072 = US$173m ÷ (US$2.6b - US$192m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

Therefore, IPG Photonics has an ROCE of 7.2%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Electronic industry average of 11%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for IPG Photonics compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for IPG Photonics .

So How Is IPG Photonics' ROCE Trending?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at IPG Photonics. To be more specific, the ROCE was 19% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on IPG Photonics becoming one if things continue as they have.

In Conclusion...

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 32% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

While IPG Photonics doesn't shine too bright in this respect, it's still worth seeing if the company is trading at attractive prices. You can find that out with our FREE intrinsic value estimation for IPGP on our platform.

While IPG Photonics isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.