Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Weakens As Manufacturing Activity Gauge Contracts More Than Expected
Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Weakens As Manufacturing Activity Gauge Contracts More Than Expected
The U.S. manufacturing activity barometer contracted more than expected in May, leading to a sharp retreat in Treasury yields at the start of the week.
五月份美国制造业活动的晴雨表跌幅超出预期，导致本周开头国债收益率急剧下挫。
After falling back into contraction in April, manufacturing activity continued to decline for the second consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey.
据供应管理学会（ISM）的调查显示，在四月份再次回落后，制造业活动在第二个连续的月份继续下滑。
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell by nine basis points to 4.41%, marking the third straight day of declines. Longer-dated yields also saw similar drops, with the 30-year yield retreating to 4.57%. This decline spurred a 0.9% rally in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT).
标准的十年期美国国债收益率下跌九个基点至4.41%，标志着连续第三天下跌。同样，较长期限的收益率也出现了类似的下跌，30年期收益率随之回落到4.57%。这一下跌刺激了纳斯达克(NASDAQ) iShares 20+年期国库券ETF(TLT)上涨0.9%。
As yields fell, the U.S. dollar index broadly weakened against peers. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) falling 0.4%.
由于收益率下跌，美元指数大幅下挫。纽约证券交易所市场上，景顺DB美元指数看好基金ETF(NYSE:UUP)下跌0.4%。
Traders slightly increased wagers on a September rate cut, currently assigning a 59% chance. That's up from Friday's 55%, according to CME Group's FedWatch toll.
交易员略微增加了对9月份降息的押注，目前指定了59%的概率。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，这比周五的55%有所增加。
April ISM Manufacturing PMI Report: Key Highlights
四月份ISM制造业PMI报告：重点亮点
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 48.7% in May, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from April's 49.2%, failing to meet economists' forecast of 49.7%.
- The New Orders Index stayed in contraction at 45.4%, which is 3.7 percentage points lower than April's 49.1%.
- The Production Index recorded 50.2%, dropping by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month's 51.3%.
- The Prices Index was 57%, a reduction of 3.9 percentage points from April's 60.9%.
- The Backlog of Orders Index stood at 42.4%, down 3 percentage points from April's 45.4%.
- Meanwhile, the Employment Index increased to 51.1%, up 2.5 percentage points from April's 48.6%.
- 五月份ISM制造业PMI指数降至48.7%，比4月份的49.2%下降了0.5个百分点，未能达到经济学家预测的49.7%。
- 新订单指数保持萎缩，为45.4%，比4月份的49.1%低了3.7个百分点。
- 生产指数为50.2%，比上个月的51.3%下降了1.1个百分点。
- 价格指数为57%，比4月份的60.9%降低了3.9个百分点。
- 订单积压指数为42.4%，比4月份的45.4%下降了3个百分点。
- 同时，就业指数从48.6%上升到51.1%，增长了2.5个百分点。
The Economist's Take
经济学家的观点
"Demand remains elusive as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest due to current monetary policy and other conditions," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management.
供应管理学会主席蒂莫西·菲奥雷（Timothy Fiore）表示：“由于当前的货币政策和其他情况，公司表现出了不愿意投资的不情愿，需求依然很少。”
These investments are being deferred, encompassing supplier order commitments, inventory building, and capital expenditures.
这些投资正在被推迟，包括供应商订单承诺、库存建设和资本支出。
While production execution continued to expand, it remained flat compared to the previous month.
虽然生产执行继续扩张，但与上个月保持持平。
According to Fiore, suppliers maintain capacity, with improved lead times and less severe shortages.
根据菲奥雷的说法，供应商保持产能，提高了交货期并减少了严重的短缺。
Fiore indicated that 55% of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in May, an increase from 34 percent in April.
菲奥雷表示，制造业GDP的55%在五月份收缩，比四月份的34%增加了。
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