Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data
Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data
Long-dated U.S. Treasuries are rallying, breaking above a key downtrend that began in late 2023, fueled by recent soft economic data, which has led investors to reprice higher expectations on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.
最近软弱的经济数据推动长期美国国债收益率回升，突破了从2023年底开始的关键下降趋势，这使得投资者重新调整了对联邦储备委员会9月降息的预期。
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), a popular gauge for long-term bond performance, has climbed to $92 on Tuesday, eyeing its fourth consecutive day of gains.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)是长期债券表现的一个热门指标，周二上涨至92美元，目标是连续第四个交易日走高。
This recent spike has lifted TLT above its declining trend channel for 2024 and, crucially, above its 50-day moving average. These technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal is underway.
这次涨幅将TLT提升到2024年下降趋势通道以上，并且重要的是，超过了其50日移动平均线。这些技术指标表明一个潜在的趋势反转正在进行中。
Other ETFs that track long-term zero-coupon Treasuries, such as the Pimco 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:ZROZ), have seen even higher increases in recent sessions, surging as much as 6% over the last four days.
此外，跟踪长期的零息票国债的其他ETF，例如Pimco 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE: ZROZ)，近期涨幅更高，过去四天上涨了多达6％。
Chart: TLT ETF Rallies Above 50-Day Average, Snaps Bearish 2024 Trend
图表：TLT ETF上涨超过50日均线，打破2024年看淡趋势。
Weak Economic Data Fuels Bets On Fed Rate Cut in September
疲软的经济数据推动投注9月联邦利率降息。
Recent economic data releases have fallen short of expectations, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September.
最近的经济数据未能达到预期，重新引发了人们的猜测，认为联邦储备委员会可能早在9月开始降息。
Last week, the second estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter delivered a downward revision from 1.6% to 1.3%. Additionally, the Chicago PMI business activity index showed its worst reading since May 2020.
上周，一季度美国GDP增长的第二次估算从1.6％下调至1.3％。此外，芝加哥PMI商业活动指数显示自2020年5月以来的最差表现。
On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May extended the contractionary trend seen in April, also missing expectations.
周一，5月ISM制造业PMI延续了4月的萎缩趋势，并未达到预期。
Tuesday brought news that the number of job openings in April 2024 dropped by 296,000 compared to the previous month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021 and falling short of expectations of 8.34 million.
周二，2024年4月份的职位空缺数量与上月相比下降了29.6万，达到2021年2月份以来的最低水平，低于834万的预期。
These disappointing data points have led traders to significantly increase their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a 65% chance of a rate cut, up from 46% just a week ago.
这些令人失望的数据点导致交易员大幅增加了对9月联邦利率降息的押注。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具，市场现在将利率降低的概率定为65％，比仅仅一周前的46％高。
All Eyes On This Week's Jobs Data
所有目光都放在这周的就业数据上。
The upcoming days will witness crucial updates on the U.S. labor market, with a series of data releases that will significantly impact financial markets.
未来几天将见证美国劳动力市场的重要更新，一系列数据公布将显著影响金融市场。
On Wednesday, the ADP will release its private Employment Report, followed by the highly anticipated official employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
周三，ADP将发布其私人就业报告，接着是备受瞩目的劳工统计局官方就业报告周五。
Economist consensus data compiled by Econoday predicts a rise in nonfarm payrolls from 175,000 in April to 195,000 in May. The estimates range from a low of 151,000 to a high of 225,000.
Econoday整理的经济学家共识数据预测，5月非农就业将从4月的17.5万上升到19.5万。估计范围从最低的15.1万到最高的22.5万。
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to show a slight monthly increase, rising from 0.2% to 0.3%. The annual growth rate is predicted to hold steady at 3.9%.
失业率预计将保持在3.9％不变。平均每小时工资预计会略有月度增长，从0.2％上升到0.3％，预计年增长率将保持在3.9％不变。
| Measure | April 2024 | May 2024 (consensus) |
Consensus range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (M/M) | 175,000 | 195,000 | 151,000 to 225,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8 % to 3.9% |
| Average hourly earnings (M/M) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (Y/Y) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% to 3.9% |
| 量规 | 2024年4月 | 2024年5月 （共识） |
共识范围 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非农就业人口(月环比) | 175,000 | 195,000 | 151,000至225,000 |
| 失业率 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8%至3.9% |
| 平均每小时工资(月环比) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2%至0.3% |
| 平均每小时工资(年同比) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8%至3.9% |
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock