These 4 Measures Indicate That Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium (SZSE:002824) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium (SZSE:002824) Is Using Debt Extensively
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002824) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
著名的基金经理李录(被查理·芒格支持)曾经说:“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是是否会遭受永久性资本损失。”当你考虑一个公司的风险时,考虑到它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为在企业破产时通常涉及债务。就像许多其他公司一样,和胜股份(SZSE:002824)也利用债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务造成了多大的风险?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般来说,只有当公司不能轻松偿还债务时,不管是通过筹集资本还是使用自身的现金流,债务才会成为真正的问题。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制企业。然而,更常见的(但仍然很昂贵)情况是,公司必须以大幅折价的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东,来支持它的资产负债表。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,特别是对于资本密集型企业。考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是同时查看企业的现金和债务。
What Is Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium's Net Debt?
和胜股份的净债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium had CN¥1.09b of debt, an increase on CN¥420.8m, over one year. However, it also had CN¥399.6m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥686.5m.
你可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但它显示,截至2024年3月,和胜股份有人民币1.09亿的债务,比去年增加了人民币4.208亿。但它还有人民币3.996亿的现金,因此它的净债务是人民币6.865亿。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240606/0-3e53d80903f16b7d9d47757897cddee1-0-026949ff4c3c23348df3229f2b9f7f9c.png/big)
A Look At Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium's Liabilities
看看和胜股份的负债
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium had liabilities of CN¥1.51b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥586.2m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥399.6m in cash and CN¥1.47b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥231.2m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,和胜股份有人民币15.1亿的短期负债和人民币5.862亿的长期负债。抵消这个的是,它有人民币3.996亿的现金和人民币14.7亿的应收账款,这些应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多2.312亿人民币。
Of course, Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium has a market capitalization of CN¥3.77b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
当然,和胜股份的市值是37.7亿元人民币,所以这些负债可能是可以管理的。但有足够的负债,我们当然建议股东继续关注资产负债表的变化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
卡比海运的净债务为1.7倍EBITDA,这表明它很好地利用了债务。 同时,EBIT利息覆盖(7.3倍)也证明卡比海运的利润完全足以支付管理费和计息费。此外,卡比海运过去12个月EBIT增长了64%,这种增长将使其更容易处理其债务。通过财务报表,我们确信该公司对债务的运用是明智的。然而,确保公司未来的盈利能力才是最终关键,这将决定卡比海运能否逐渐加强其资产负债表。此外,自由现金流还将帮助我们检查公司的出现的任何偏离预期的现金流。
Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium has net debt to EBITDA of 2.8 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. But the high interest coverage of 7.8 suggests it can easily service that debt. Importantly, Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 29% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
和胜股份的净债务/ EBITDA为2.8,表明它使用了相当多的负债来提高回报。但高达7.8的高利息覆盖率表明它可以轻松服务那些债务。更重要的是,和胜股份的EBIT在过去12个月中惊人地下降了29%。如果这种下降继续下去,偿还债务将比在素食主义者大会上出售鹅肝酱还难。毫无疑问,我们通过资产负债表了解债务。但最终,企业未来的盈利能力将决定和胜股份是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。如果你专注于未来,你可以查看这份免费报告,显示分析师的盈利预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
但我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为一个公司不能靠纸面利润支付债务;它需要的是冰冷的现金。因此,我们显然需要看看EBIT是否导致了相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年里,和胜股份的自由现金流大幅出现负增长。虽然投资者无疑期望这种情况会逆转,但它确实意味着它的债务使用更加冒险。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
从表面上看,和胜股份的EBIT转化为自由现金流使我们对股票感到踌躇,而它的EBIT增长率也不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚最空荡的餐馆更具吸引力。但至少它在利息支出和EBIT上覆盖得很好;这是令人鼓舞的。从资产负债表上看,考虑到所有这些因素,我们认为债务正在使和胜股份股票具有一定的风险。这并不一定是一件坏事,但我们通常会感到更加舒适,如果企业使用的杠杆更小一些的话。从资产负债表上了解债务毫无疑问是最重要的。但不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表之内 - 远非如此。我们已经发现了和胜股份的3个警示信号(至少有1个是重要的),了解它们应该成为你的投资过程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果您在所有这些工作之后,更感兴趣于拥有坚实资产负债表的快速发展公司,请立即查看我们的净现金成长股列表。
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