European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates By 0.25%, But Projects Inflation 'Above Target Well Into Next Year'
European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates By 0.25%, But Projects Inflation 'Above Target Well Into Next Year'
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, a move that was largely anticipated by the market, indicating the need to "moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady."
欧洲央行周四下调利率25个基点，这一举动市场是预期之中的，表明需要“适度减缓货币政策限制的程度，”此前已经维持利率稳定了九个月。
The new interest rates are set at 4.25% for main refinancing operations, 4.5% for the marginal lending facility and 3.75% for the deposit facility.
新的利率为：主要再融资操作利率为4.25%，边界贷款设施利率为4.5%，存款设施利率为3.75%。
This is the first ECB rate cut since March 2016 for both the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending rate, and the first reduction in the deposit rate since September 2019.
这是欧洲央行自2016年3月以来首次降息，主要再融资操作利率和边际贷款利率都是如此，而存款利率也是自2019年9月以来首次下调。
Furthermore, the ECB is the second major central bank to enact a rate cut this week, following the Bank of Canada's similar 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate on Wednesday.
此外，欧洲央行是继加拿大银行周三实施类似的25个基点政策利率下调之后，第二家实施利率下调的主要央行。
ECB Revises 2024 Growth Outlook, Inflation To The Upside
欧洲央行修订了2024年的增长前景，而通胀走势向上。
The ECB statement indicates that headline inflation has fallen by 2.5 percentage points since September 2023 and "the outlook has improved markedly."
欧洲央行声明指出，自2023年9月以来，总体通胀率下降了2.5个百分点，而“前景已经明显改善”。
Frankfurt also warned that "domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year."
法兰克福也警告说：“由于工资增长高企，国内物价压力依然强劲，通胀可能会保持在目标之上，很可能持续到明年。”
Frankfurt also issued the June staff economic projections, which compared to March signal an upward revision for both growth and inflation for 2024. The central bank also made upward adjustments to expectations for price pressures next year.
法兰克福还发布了6月的工作人员经济预测报告，与3月相比，2024年的增长与通胀情况都得到了上调。中央银行还上调了明年的价格压力预期。
Headline inflation is now projected to average 2.5% in 2024 (up by 0.2 percentage points from May), 2.2% in 2025 (up by 0.2 percentage points from May) and 1.9% in 2026 (unchanged).
预计2024年总体通胀率平均为2.5% （比5月份上调了0.2个百分点），2025年为2.2%（比5月份上调了0.2个百分点），2026年为1.9%（未变）。
Core inflation projections have also been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% for this year. Projections for 2025 have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%, while those for 2026 were kept unchanged at 2.0%.
核心通胀预测今年也上调了0.2个百分点至2.8%。2025年的预测上调了0.1个百分点至2.1%，而2026年的预测则保持在2.0%。
Output growth is now expected to average 0.9% in 2024 (up from 0.6% in March), 1.4% in 2025 (down from 1.5% in March) and 1.6% in 2026 (unchanged).
预计2024年经济增长率平均为0.9%（比3月的0.6%上调），2025年为1.4%（比3月的1.5%下调），2026年为1.6%（未变）。
The ECB continues to reiterate that future policy decisions will depend on the evolution of data, following a meeting-by-meeting approach.
欧洲央行继续强调未来的政策决策将取决于数据的发展，采用逐会议的方式。
Market Reactions
市场反应
The euro, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSE:FXE), rose by 0.1% to 1.0885 against the dollar minutes after the ECB statement, as investors took as "hawkish" the upward revisions on inflation.
欧元指数型景顺货币板块信托股（NYSE: FXE）在欧洲央行发布声明后几分钟内上涨了0.1％，投资者认为通胀上调“鹰派”。
Yields on major European sovereign bonds rose by about 4 basis points, with the 10-year Bund rising to 2.55%.
主要欧洲各国主权债券的收益率增加了约4个基点，10年期德国国债的收益率上升至2.55％。
European equity indices trimmed session gains in reaction to the ECB decision, after hitting all-time highs earlier this morning.
欧洲股市指数在欧洲央行决定后出现下降，此前它们在当天早些时候创下历史新高。
Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自Shutterstock。