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Is Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) A Risky Investment?

Is Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) A Risky Investment?

世纪铝业(纳斯达克:CENX)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  06/09 08:42

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

大卫·伊本说得好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。”当我们思考一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,世纪铝业公司(纳斯达克股票代码:CENX)也使用债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但是如果企业无法偿还贷款,那么债务就任其摆布。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所获。但是,更频繁(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是同时考虑其现金和债务。

What Is Century Aluminum's Debt?

什么是世纪铝业的债务?

As you can see below, Century Aluminum had US$528.0m of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$93.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$434.5m.

如下所示,截至2024年3月,世纪铝业有5.28亿美元的债务,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表以获取更多详细信息。但是,它确实有9,350万美元的现金抵消了这一点,净负债约为4.345亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:CENX Debt to Equity History June 9th 2024
NASDAQGS: CENX 债券与股本的比率历史记录 2024 年 6 月 9 日

How Strong Is Century Aluminum's Balance Sheet?

世纪铝业的资产负债表有多强?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Century Aluminum had liabilities of US$468.9m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$793.9m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$93.5m as well as receivables valued at US$167.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.00b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,世纪铝业在一年内到期的负债为4.689亿美元,在此之后到期的负债为7.939亿美元。除这些债务外,它有9,350万美元的现金以及价值1.670亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多出10亿美元。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$1.47b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Century Aluminum's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Century Aluminum's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

相对于其14.7亿美元的市值,这一赤字相当可观,因此这确实表明股东应密切关注世纪铝业的债务使用情况。如果其贷款人要求其支撑资产负债表,股东可能会面临严重的稀释。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,未来的收益将决定世纪铝业未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

Over 12 months, Century Aluminum made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$2.1b, which is a fall of 18%. We would much prefer see growth.

在过去的12个月中,世纪铝业在息税前利润水平上出现亏损,收入降至21亿美元,下降了18%。我们更希望看到增长。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Not only did Century Aluminum's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost US$200k at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. However, it doesn't help that it burned through US$19m of cash over the last year. So to be blunt we think it is risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Century Aluminum , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

在过去的十二个月中,世纪铝业不仅收入下滑,而且还产生了负的息税前收益(EBIT)。事实上,它在息税前利润水平上损失了20万美元。考虑到除了上述负债外,我们对公司应该使用如此多的债务没有太大的信心。因此,我们认为其资产负债表有些紧张,尽管并非无法修复。但是,去年它烧掉了1900万美元的现金,这无济于事。因此,坦率地说,我们认为这是有风险的。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。我们已经确定了世纪铝业的3个警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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