Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
作为投资者,有些人认为波动性是评估风险的最好方式,而沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:“波动性与风险远非同义词。” 当你考虑一个公司的风险时,自然会考虑其资产负债表,因为当企业崩溃时通常涉及到债务。 我们注意到Oshkosh公司(纽交所:OSK)的资产负债表上确实有债务。 但更重要的问题是:这些债务造成了多少风险?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
当企业无法轻松通过自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资本来履行债务和其他负债时,债务和其他负债就变得有风险。资本主义的一个要素是“创造性破坏”的过程,即银行家无情地清算失败的企业。然而,一种更常见(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,它必须以低价募集新的股权资本,从而永久性稀释股东的利益。当然,债务的好处是它经常代表便宜的资本,特别是当它替代一家公司的稀释能力,在能够以高回报率进行再投资的情况下。当我们考虑债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
How Much Debt Does Oshkosh Carry?
Oshkosh承担了多少债务?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Oshkosh had US$1.24b of debt, up from US$597.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$69.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$1.17b.
正如下图所示,在2024年3月底,Oshkosh的债务总额为12.4亿美元,比一年前的5.97亿美元增加了一倍多。 点击图像以了解更多详情。 但是,由于它拥有6990万美元的现金储备,其净债务只有约11.7亿美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240609/0-c8305ad337726bada1cfe3f6f5cad068-0-e8088bd1e79526cecd86f6d19cb44ca0.png/big)
How Strong Is Oshkosh's Balance Sheet?
Oshkosh的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Oshkosh had liabilities of US$3.32b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$2.33b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$69.9m as well as receivables valued at US$2.36b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$3.21b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根据最近报告的资产负债表,Oshkosh有33.2亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,23.3亿美元的负债在12个月后到期。 抵消这些义务,它持有价值23.6亿美元的应收账款和6990万美元的现金。 所以它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的组合多出31亿2100万美元。
Oshkosh has a market capitalization of US$7.19b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
Oshkosh的市值为71.9亿美元,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金来改善其资产负债表。 但是,我们确实想要保持警惕,观察其债务是否带来了过多的风险。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了对比公司的债务与其收入的相对规模,我们计算了其净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),以及其息税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。因此,我们既考虑了债务与收益的关系,也考虑了折旧和摊销费用。
Oshkosh has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.0. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.6 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Even more impressive was the fact that Oshkosh grew its EBIT by 105% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Oshkosh's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Oshkosh的净债务与EBITDA比率仅为1.0。 其利息支出的利润涵盖了14.6倍。 因此,你可以认为它面临的风险不比大象面临的风险小。 更令人印象深刻的是,Oshkosh在12个月内将其EBIT增长了105%。 如果保持这种增长,这将使债务在未来的几年内更易管理。 在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显地方。 但是,未来的收益,更多地取决于任何事情,都将决定Oshkosh保持健康资产负债表的能力。 因此,如果你关注未来,你可以查看此免费报告,其中显示了分析师的利润预测。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Oshkosh recorded free cash flow of 21% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最后,公司只能用冷硬现金而不是会计利润来偿还债务。 因此,我们始终要检查其中多少EBIT被转化为自由现金流。 查看最近三年,Oshkosh记录的自由现金流为其EBIT的21%,这比我们预期的要弱。 这种弱的现金转换使处理负债变得更加困难。
Our View
我们的观点
Happily, Oshkosh's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But truth be told we feel its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Oshkosh can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Oshkosh has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
令人高兴的是,Oshkosh令人印象深刻的利息覆盖率意味着它在债务方面具有优势。 但是说实话,我们认为其将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力会有点削弱这一印象。 综合考虑所有上述因素,我们认为Oshkosh可以相当舒适地处理其债务。 当然,虽然这种杠杆可以增强股本回报,但它确实带来更多风险,因此值得密切关注。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到债务的最多。 但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表的风险。 例如Oshkosh有2个警告信号(其中1个是令人关注的)我们认为你应该知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
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