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Is Wolong Electric GroupLtd (SHSE:600580) A Risky Investment?

Is Wolong Electric GroupLtd (SHSE:600580) A Risky Investment?

乌龙电气集团股份有限公司(SHSE:600580)是一项有风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  06/10 18:37

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Wolong Electric Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600580) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Charlie Munger支持的外部基金经理李录坦言,“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是是否会遭受永久性资本损失。” 当你研究一个公司的风险时,考虑其资产负债表就显得特别重要,因为公司倒闭时往往会涉及到债务。不过,卧龙电驱(SHSE:600580)确实拥有债务。但这个债务是否会令股东们担忧呢?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业成长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还其贷款人,那么它就处于他们的控制之下。最终,如果公司不能履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所有。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,公司必须以低价筹集新的股权资本,从而永久性地稀释股东。当然,债务的好处是,它通常代表着廉价资本,特别是当它替换具有高回报率再投资能力的公司的稀释时。当我们考虑公司的债务使用时,我们首先查看现金和债务的总体情况。

What Is Wolong Electric GroupLtd's Net Debt?

卧龙电驱有净债务吗?

As you can see below, Wolong Electric GroupLtd had CN¥6.25b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have CN¥2.44b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥3.81b.

如下图所示,卧龙电驱在2024年3月份有6.25亿元的债务,与前一年大致相同。您可以点击图表以获取更详细的信息。然而,它有2.44亿元的现金用于抵消这个债务,从而产生了约3.81亿元的净债务。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600580 Debt to Equity History June 10th 2024
SHSE:600580资产负债率历史纪录2024年6月10日

How Healthy Is Wolong Electric GroupLtd's Balance Sheet?

卧龙电驱的资产负债表状况如何?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Wolong Electric GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥9.99b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥3.90b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥2.44b in cash and CN¥6.72b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.73b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据上一份报告的资产负债表,卧龙电驱有999亿元的负债在12个月内到期,390亿元的负债超出了12个月。与此相抵,它有2.44亿元的现金和6.72亿元应于12个月内到期的应收账款。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款多达4.73亿元。

Wolong Electric GroupLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥17.1b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

卧龙电驱的市值为171亿元,因此,如果需要,它很有可能筹集资金来改善其资产负债表。但我们肯定要密切关注其债务带来的风险。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要比率来分析债务与收益之间的关系。第一个比率是净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,第二个比率是其利润前利润和税(EBIT)覆盖利息支出的次数(或其利息覆盖比率)。这种方法的优点在于我们考虑到了债务的绝对数量(通过净债务与EBITDA的比率),以及与这些债务相关的实际利息支出(通过其利息覆盖比率)。

Wolong Electric GroupLtd's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.2 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.7 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Wolong Electric GroupLtd grew its EBIT by 4.5% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wolong Electric GroupLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

卧龙电驱的净债务与EBITDA的比率非常合理,仅为2.2倍,而去年的利息支出仅占EBIT的4.7倍。虽然这些数字并不让我们感到担忧,但值得注意的是,公司债务成本正在产生实际影响。卧龙电驱去年的EBIT增长了4.5%。虽然这并不令人惊讶,但这对于债务来说是个好消息。资产负债表显然是您在分析债务时需要关注的领域。但更重要的是,未来的收益,而不是任何东西,都将决定卧龙电驱能否保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果您想查看专业人士的看法,您可能会发现此分析师盈利预测免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Wolong Electric GroupLtd recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

最后,公司只能用现金而不是会计利润偿还债务。因此,我们显然需要查看EBIT是否会导致相应的自由现金流。从最近三年来看,卧龙电驱的自由现金流占EBIT的比例为22%,这比我们预期的要弱。在偿还债务方面,这并不好。

Our View

我们的观点

Wolong Electric GroupLtd's struggle to convert EBIT to free cash flow had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. But on the bright side, its ability to to grow its EBIT isn't too shabby at all. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Wolong Electric GroupLtd is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Wolong Electric GroupLtd you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

卧龙电驱运用EBIT创造自由现金流的难度让我们对其资产负债表的强度产生了第二次猜测,但我们认为其他考虑到的数据点还是可以挽救的。但从好的一面来看,它增长EBIT的能力也非常不错。综上所述,我们认为卧龙电驱是一项有一定风险的投资,因为其债务。并不是所有的风险都是不好的,如果这些风险得到了回报,它们可能会增加股价回报。但是,这种债务风险值得记在心中。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

总的来说,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包含这些公司(所有这些公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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