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Is NewMarket (NYSE:NEU) A Risky Investment?

Is NewMarket (NYSE:NEU) A Risky Investment?

NewMarket (纽交所:NEU)是否是一项有风险的投资?
Simply Wall St ·  06/11 08:12

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, NewMarket Corporation (NYSE:NEU) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

传说中的基金经理李璐(Charlie Munger支持)曾说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是您是否会遭受永久性资本损失。” 当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢看看它的债务使用情况,因为债务超载可能会导致破产。重要的是,NewMarket Corporation (NYSE:NEU)确实有负债。但是这个债务对股东是不是一个问题呢?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务带来了什么风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

负债帮助企业直到企业遇到还款困难,或者是靠新资本或自由现金流偿还。最坏的情况是,如果一家公司不能偿还债权人,那么公司将破产。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须在股价便宜的情况下稀释股东,以控制负债。然而,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要高回报率的增长资本的企业的一种非常好的工具。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是考虑其现金和债务总额。

What Is NewMarket's Net Debt?

NewMarket的净债务是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, NewMarket had US$1.28b of debt, up from US$958.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had US$117.1m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.16b.

正如下图所示,在2024年3月底,NewMarket的债务总额为12.8亿美元,比一年前的9.58亿美元增加。然而,它还持有1.171亿美元的现金,因此其净债务为11.6亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:NEU Debt to Equity History June 11th 2024
NYSE:NEU的资产负债历史记录于2024年6月11日

A Look At NewMarket's Liabilities

查看NewMarket的负债情况

According to the last reported balance sheet, NewMarket had liabilities of US$390.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.61b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$117.1m in cash and US$464.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.42b.

根据最后报告的资产负债表,NewMarket有3.908亿美元的负债到期时间在12个月内,有16.1亿美元的负债到期时间在12个月以后。相对而言,它拥有1.171亿美元的现金和4.647亿美元的应收账款,应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债超过其现金和(短期)应收款项的总和1.42亿美元。

This deficit isn't so bad because NewMarket is worth US$5.10b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

这个赤字不是很糟糕,因为NewMarket价值51亿美元,因此如果需要的话,可能可以筹集足够的资本来支撑其资产负债表。但我们肯定要留意其债务会带来过多的风险的迹象。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我们使用两个主要的比率来衡量债务水平与收益的关系。一个是净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA),另一个是它的利息费用与利息和税前利润(EBIT)相比的倍数(或其利息覆盖率)。这样,我们考虑了债务的绝对量以及所支付的利率。

We'd say that NewMarket's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.9), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 12.7 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. We note that NewMarket grew its EBIT by 24% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since NewMarket will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

我们认为NewMarket的中等净债务与息税前利润比率(为1.9),表明了其在处理债务时的谨慎。其统治的息税前利润为12.7倍,说明它的债务负担轻盈如孔雀的羽毛。我们注意到,NewMarket去年的息税前利润增长了24%,这应该会使其以后更容易偿还债务。无疑,在分析债务时,资产负债表是一个明显的关注点。但是,您不能将债务视为孤立存在;因为NewMarket将需要赚取利润来偿还债务。因此,在考虑债务时,绝对值得看看收益趋势。单击此处以获得互动快照。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, NewMarket produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 58% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润并不能胜任。因此,合乎逻辑的步骤是查看与实际自由现金流匹配的息税前利润比例。在过去的三年中,NewMarket产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其息税前利润的58%,与我们的预期大致相当。这种自由现金流使公司在适当时候偿还债务处于良好的位置。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that NewMarket's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that NewMarket takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with NewMarket .

好消息是,NewMarket用其息税前利润支付利息的能力让我们惊喜,就像一只蓬松的小狗让可爱的小孩一样。这只是好消息的开始,因为其息税前利润增长率也非常令人振奋。考虑到所有这些数据,我们认为NewMarket在处理债务时采取的是相当明智的方法。虽然会带来一些风险,但也可以为股东增加回报。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在在资产负债表之外的风险。为此,您应该意识到我们发现的1个警告信号与NewMarket有关。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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