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We Think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (SZSE:000869) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

We Think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (SZSE:000869) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

我们认为张裕能轻松应对其债务。
Simply Wall St ·  06/11 18:53

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited (SZSE:000869) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的巴菲特合伙人李录毫不掩饰地表示:'最大的投资风险不在价格的波动性上,而在于你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。'当我们考虑一家公司有多大的风险时,我们总是喜欢看看它使用债务的情况,因为债务过载可能会导致破产。我们注意到,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司(深证股市:000869)确实有债务在其资产负债表上。但更重要的问题是:这些债务会带来多大的风险呢?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

债务有助于企业,直到企业在新资本或自由现金流方面有困难偿还债务。在最坏的情况下,如果企业无法偿还其债权人,那么该公司可能会破产。虽然这不是很常见,但我们经常看到负债的公司会因为贷款人迫使它们以降价的价格筹集资本而永久稀释股东。然而,通过取代稀释,债务可以成为需要高回报率投资于成长的企业的极好工具。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平的总和。

What Is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's Net Debt?

烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine had debt of CN¥446.4m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥639.8m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥2.06b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.61b net cash.

你可以单击下面的图像查看更多详细信息,它显示烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司在2024年3月底的债务为人民币446.4万元,较去年同期减少了人民币639.8万元。但其资产负债表显示,该公司持有人民币20.6亿元的现金,因此实际上有净现金16.1亿元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000869 Debt to Equity History June 11th 2024
SZSE:000869自2014年6月11日的资产负债率历史记录

A Look At Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's Liabilities

评估烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司的负债水平

The latest balance sheet data shows that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine had liabilities of CN¥1.56b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥175.6m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥2.06b and CN¥711.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.03b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新资产负债表数据显示,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司短期内要还清人民币15.6亿元的债务,之后还有人民币1.756亿元的债务。另一方面,该公司持有20.6亿元人民币和7.11亿元人民币在一年内到期应收账款。因此,其实际上有10.3亿元人民币的净现金。总负债还多出了更多的流动资产。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

这种短期流动性的迹象表明,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司很可能能够轻松清偿其债务,因为其资产负债表远未到极限。简而言之,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司拥有净现金,因此可以说其没有沉重的债务负担!

On the other hand, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine saw its EBIT drop by 4.4% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

另一方面,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司最近12个月的息税前利润下降了4.4%。如果这样的下降持续下去,显然会使债务的处理更加困难。很明显,资产负债表是你分析债务的主要区域。但最终,企业未来的盈利能力,将决定烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想了解专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份涉及分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润并不够。尽管烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司在其资产负债表上具有净现金,但人们仍然值得关注它把息税前利润转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解它是如何快速建立(或侵蚀)其现金余额的。过去三年,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司实际上生产的自由现金流比息税前利润还多。在涉及保持债权人的好感方面,没有比收到现金更好的了。

Summing Up

总之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine has CN¥1.61b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥640m, being 119% of its EBIT. So we don't think Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine .

虽然调查一家公司的债务使用情况总是明智的,但在这种情况下,烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司拥有净现金16.1亿元和看起来还不错的资产负债表。此外,它还以6.4亿元的自由现金流给我们留下了深刻印象,这是其息税前利润的119%。因此,我们认为烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司使用债务并不具有风险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但是,并不是所有的投资风险都在资产负债表上,远非如此。因此,你应该知道我们发现的1个关于烟台张裕旗下张裕股份有限公司的警告标志。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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