Consumer Outlook 'Healthy' As Labor Demand Points To Wage Growth: Goldman Sachs
Consumer Outlook 'Healthy' As Labor Demand Points To Wage Growth: Goldman Sachs
The consumer outlook for the remainder of 2024 appears to be robust as a firm labor demand indicates higher wages that will lead to more disposable personal income, according to a Goldman Sachs analyst.
高盛分析师指出，随着劳动力需求的增加，消费者的前景在2024年剩余时间看上去很强劲，这将导致更多的可支配个人收入。
Despite a higher unemployment rate in April, there is a surplus of 1.6 million jobs in the U.S. that is expected to result in higher wages and greater consumer spending, Kate McShane noted.
凯特·麦克夏恩指出，尽管4月份失业率较高，但美国存在160万个就业岗位富余，预计会导致工资更高和消费更多。
"Our economists view 2024 consumer outlook as healthy, with the employment backdrop supportive of robust wage growth led DPI (disposable personal income) growth forecast for the year," she wrote in a note on Wednesday.
她在周三的一份报告中写道：“我们的经济学家认为，就业形势支持有利于强劲的工资增长，带动全年的可支配个人收入（DPI）增长预测，因此2024年的消费者前景是健康的。”
She said the employment scenario boosts discretionary income and spending for consumers, expecting DPI to grow 4.7% this year, versus Goldman Sachs' prior 4.8% outlook for 2024.
她说就业情况提高了消费者的可自由支配收入和支出，预计DPI今年将增长4.7％，高于高盛此前2024年 DIP 的增长预期。
Also read: US Inflation Eases More Than Expected In May, Boosts 2024 Rate Cut Prospects Ahead Of Wednesday's Fed Meeting
还需阅读：因通胀更低于预期，支持2024年前的加息前景，在本周的联邦储备委员会会议前提振了市场
This will translate into discretionary cash income reaching 3.4%, down from a prior expectation of 3.7% as of December 2023, as Goldman Sachs expects lower mortgage equity withdrawals and borrowings that will prompt 4% growth in household income, McShane wrote. That outlook is down from a 4.2% growth expected in December 2023.
麦克夏恩写道，这将导致可自由支配现金收入达到3.4％，低于2013年12月之前的3.7％的预期，因为高盛预计更少的抵押权益提取和借贷，这将促使家庭收入增长4％。这个前景较之前的4.2%的增长预期有所下降。
Still, financial obligations are expected to grow 8.5% this year, while essential spending is set to increase 2.9%.
不过，金融义务预计今年将增长8.5％，而必要支出预计将增长2.9％。
"Having said that, we note that risks around cashflow/spending are skewed to the downside given it is unlikely the saving rate declines much more from here, and there are no upside income/spending catalysts in the pipeline," she added.
她补充道：“话虽如此，我们注意到流动性/支出风险的风险是有偏差的，因为不太可能从这里进一步降低储蓄率，并且在管道中没有上行的收入/支出催化剂。”
McShane noted that Goldman Sachs expects the lower-income consumer to cut back on purchases this year as a result of inflation, but the higher-income consumer is expected to spend more, according to the bank's HundredX analysis.
麦克夏恩指出，高盛预计低收入消费者由于通胀将削减今年购买力，但根据银行的百倍分析，高收入消费者预计将支出更多。
McShane recommends stocks that are "insulated from risk factors" due to low-price discipline, volume growth drivers such as innovation and strong revenue growth, such as Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM), SharkNinja (NYSE:SN) and Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL).
麦克夏恩推荐那些由于低价策略和创新等因素带来的成交量增长和强劲营收增长而“受到风险因素影响较小”的股票，例如可口可乐（NYSE：KO）、高露洁（NYSE：CL）、Sprouts Farmers Market（NASDAQ：SFM）、SharkNinja（NYSE：SN）和皇家加勒比邮轮（NYSE：RCL）。
Read now: Economy Takes Center Stage In 2024: Can Upbeat US Consumer Sentiment Reshape Poll Results?
此外：经济成为2024年的中心舞台：乐观的美国消费者情绪是否能够塑造民意调查结果？
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock