Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, EnerSys fair value estimate is US$184
EnerSys is estimated to be 40% undervalued based on current share price of US$110
The US$117 analyst price target for ENS is 36% less than our estimate of fair value
Does the June share price for EnerSys (NYSE:ENS) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$230.3m
US$264.5m
US$370.9m
US$410.3m
US$443.7m
US$472.2m
US$496.7m
US$518.4m
US$537.9m
US$555.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 10.61%
Est @ 8.14%
Est @ 6.41%
Est @ 5.20%
Est @ 4.36%
Est @ 3.76%
Est @ 3.35%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%
US$213
US$227
US$294
US$301
US$302
US$297
US$289
US$279
US$268
US$257
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.7b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$10b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$4.7b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$7.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$110, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NYSE:ENS Discounted Cash Flow June 13th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at EnerSys as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.228. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for EnerSys
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Balance sheet summary for ENS.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electrical market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
What else are analysts forecasting for ENS?
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For EnerSys, there are three further items you should consider:
Financial Health: Does ENS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does ENS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
