Is BrightSpring Health Services (NASDAQ:BTSG) A Risky Investment?
Is BrightSpring Health Services (NASDAQ:BTSG) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BTSG) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
伯克希尔·哈撒韦的查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)支持的外部基金管理人李禄从不掩饰自己的观点:“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是是否会永久损失资本。” 在考察企业风险时自然要考虑公司的资产负债表,因为债务常常与企业倒闭有关。诸如BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BTSG)等许多公司一样,利用了债务,但更重要的问题是:这笔债务带来了多少风险?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
当企业无法轻松地履行其义务时,无论是通过自由现金流还是以有吸引力的价格筹集资本,债务和其他负债都会对企业造成风险。如果情况真的很糟,贷款人可以控制企业。虽然这种情况不太常见,但我们经常看到负债累累的企业因贷款人强制他们以困境价格筹集资本而永久稀释股东利益。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地处理其债务——并使其受益。考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是考虑其现金和债务总额。
How Much Debt Does BrightSpring Health Services Carry?
BrightSpring Health Services承担了多少债务?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that BrightSpring Health Services had debt of US$2.56b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from US$3.68b over a year. However, it also had US$58.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$2.51b.
下面的图像(可点击以获得更多细节)显示,BrightSpring Health Services在2024年3月底的债务为25.6亿美元,比一年前的36.8亿美元有所减少。但是,它也有5800万美元的现金,因此它的净债务是25.1亿美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240613/0-573a7120804a942dd4fe8e0250b3e916-0-5fee5034928bd16bc44e64a0b7f21405.png/big)
How Healthy Is BrightSpring Health Services' Balance Sheet?
BrightSpring Health Services的资产负债表状况如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that BrightSpring Health Services had liabilities of US$1.24b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$2.84b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$58.0m and US$1.11b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.91b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到BrightSpring Health Services在12个月内有12.4亿美元的负债和超过2.84亿美元的负债逾期。另一方面,它有5800万美元的现金和11.1亿美元的应收账款。因此,它的负债总计比现金和短期应收账款加起来多出29.1亿美元。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$1.86b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, BrightSpring Health Services would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
这里的不足严重影响了这家市值186亿美元的公司,就像一个孩子背着装满书、体育用品和小号的巨大背包一样。因此,我们认为股东们一定要密切关注这个问题。毕竟,如果BrightSpring Health Services今天必须偿付债权人,它可能需要进行重大的再资本化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
卡比海运的净债务为1.7倍EBITDA,这表明它很好地利用了债务。 同时,EBIT利息覆盖(7.3倍)也证明卡比海运的利润完全足以支付管理费和计息费。此外,卡比海运过去12个月EBIT增长了64%,这种增长将使其更容易处理其债务。通过财务报表,我们确信该公司对债务的运用是明智的。然而,确保公司未来的盈利能力才是最终关键,这将决定卡比海运能否逐渐加强其资产负债表。此外,自由现金流还将帮助我们检查公司的出现的任何偏离预期的现金流。
Weak interest cover of 0.33 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.2 hit our confidence in BrightSpring Health Services like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Worse, BrightSpring Health Services's EBIT was down 52% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if BrightSpring Health Services can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
薄弱的利息覆盖率0.33倍和惊人的净负债与EBITDA比率8.2让我们对BrightSpring Health Services的信心受到了巨大的打击。这里的债务负担相当巨大。更糟的是,过去一年里,BrightSpring Health Services的EBIT下降了52%。如果收益继续沿着那个轨迹发展,偿还那笔债务将比说服我们在雨中马拉松更加困难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中获得了大多数有关债务的信息。但最终,企业的未来盈利能力将决定BrightSpring Health Services能否逐步加强其资产负债表。所以,如果您想了解专业人士的想法,您可能会发现分析师盈利预测的这份免费报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, BrightSpring Health Services reported free cash flow worth 16% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
但最后考虑的也很重要,因为公司无法用虚拟的收益支付债务;它需要冰冷的现金来偿还债务。因此,逻辑上的下一步是查看EBIT的比例与实际的自由现金流量相匹配的程度。在过去三年中,BrightSpring Health Services报告的自由现金流量价值为其EBIT的16%,这是非常低的。对我们来说,这么低的现金转换率对其熄灭债务的能力引起了一点儿疑虑。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both BrightSpring Health Services's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its level of total liabilities also fails to instill confidence. We should also note that Healthcare industry companies like BrightSpring Health Services commonly do use debt without problems. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that BrightSpring Health Services really is carrying too much debt. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. Given our concerns about BrightSpring Health Services's debt levels, it seems only prudent to check if insiders have been ditching the stock.
坦白地说,BrightSpring Health Services的利息覆盖率和其EBIT没有增长的记录让我们对其债务水平感到相当不舒服。此外,其总负债水平也未能增强人们的信心。我们还应该指出,像BrightSpring Health Services这样的医疗保健产业公司通常会毫无问题地使用债务。考虑到先前提到的所有因素,我们认为BrightSpring Health Services确实承担了太多的债务。对我们来说,这使得该股票相当冒险,就像闭着眼睛穿越狗公园一样危险。但某些投资者可能有不同的看法。鉴于我们对BrightSpring Health Services的债务水平的担忧,检查内部人士是否已经抛弃该股票似乎是唯一谨慎的选择。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果您在所有这些工作之后,更感兴趣于拥有坚实资产负债表的快速发展公司,请立即查看我们的净现金成长股列表。
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