French Stocks Set For Worst Week Since Russia's War In Ukraine, Yields Versus Bund Hit 12-Year Highs On Snap Election Jitters
French Stocks Set For Worst Week Since Russia's War In Ukraine, Yields Versus Bund Hit 12-Year Highs On Snap Election Jitters
The French stock market is on track to register its worst weekly performance since late February 2022.
法国股市可能面临自2022年2月底以来的最糟糕的一周表现。
Following the announcement of snap elections last Sunday, the Paris CAC 40 index — as tracked by the iShares MSCI France Index Fund (NYSE:EWQ) — fell by 2.4% at 8:10 a.m. ET, heading into the final hours of the European session.
上周日宣布提前举行大选后，巴黎CAC 40指数（由iShares MSCI France Index基金（纽交所：EWQ）跟踪）在美国东部时间早上8:10下跌2.4％，进入欧洲交易的最后几小时。
On a weekly basis, the decline extends to 6%, marking the worst performance since late February 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a drop of over 10% for the CAC 40.
从周线来看，下跌幅度扩大至6％，是自2022年2月底以来最糟糕的表现，当时俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致CAC 40下跌10％以上。
Chart: France Equities Tumble The Most Since Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
图表：法国股票的跌幅达到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高点。
Risks Of Broader Contagion
更广泛的感染风险。
The main declines this week are among banking stocks, hit by the wave of sell-offs due to political uncertainties. France's largest financial institution, BNP Paribas, fell over 13%, while Societe Generale is down by over 16% this week.
本周主要下跌的是银行股，受到政治不确定性导致的抛售浪潮的影响。 法国最大的金融机构BNP Paribas下跌逾13％，而Societe Generale本周下跌逾16％。
An exchange-traded fund tracking broader European financial institutions – the iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (NYSE:EUFN) – is down by 7% for the week, indicating that France's political risks are spreading throughout the region.
跟踪更广泛的欧洲金融机构的交易所交易基金 - iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF（纽交所：EUFN） - 本周下跌7％，表明法国的政治风险正在在整个地区蔓延。
The broader iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (NYSE:EZU) fell 4.6% this week, on track for its worst week since September 2022.
跟踪整个欧元区的更广泛的iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF（纽交所：EZU）本周下跌4.6％，准备迎来自2022年9月以来最糟糕的一周。
The euro fell by 0.5% on Friday and by over 1% for the week, eyeing its worst weekly performance in over two months.
欧元本周下跌0.5％，本周下跌超过1％，并盯着自两个月以来最糟糕的一周表现。
"The risk premium in European assets could build further," Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING analyst, wrote on a note Friday.
“欧洲资产的风险溢价可能进一步上升，” ING分析师全球市场主管克里斯·特纳（Chris Turner）在星期五的便条中写道。
Why Are French And European Assets Tumbling This Much?
为什么法国和欧洲的资产会如此动荡？
The decisive victory of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party in last Sunday's European Parliament elections led President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the French National Assembly and call for new parliamentary elections. France will vote in the first round in two weeks, followed by a runoff on July 7.
马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）极右翼国民集会在上周日的欧洲议会选举中取得决定性胜利，引发了总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）解散法国国民议会并召开新的议会选举。法国将在两周内进行第一轮投票，其次是7月7日的决选。
With a budget deficit already particularly high at around 6%, investors fear the risk of French fiscal accounts deteriorating further if Le Pen's party secures a majority in the national parliament.
由于法国的预算赤字已经非常高，约为6％，投资者担心勒庞的政党在国家议会中获得多数席位将进一步恶化法国的财政状况。
According to ING, "Frexit" is no longer seen as a risk, but markets are jittery ahead of the snap parliamentary election.
根据ING的说法，“法国退欧”不再被视为一种风险，但市场在预期提前举行的议会选举之前感到不安。
In addition to far-right-wing fears, French left-wing parties are forming a coalition to run a single candidate per district, which could further erode support for President Macron's party.
除了极右翼的恐惧之外，法国左翼党派正在组成一项议会选举中的联盟，每个选区只有一个候选人，这可能进一步削弱支持总统马克龙的政党的支持率。
The yields on French 10-year government bonds have been trending upward, and the spread with the German Bund has shot up to 83 basis points, the highest level since July 2012.
法国10年期政府债券收益率一直在上升，与德国国债（Bund）的利差飙升至83个基点，是自2012年7月以来的最高水平。
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Image: Pixabay
图片：Pixabay