share_log

Is Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel (SZSE:002085) A Risky Investment?

Is Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel (SZSE:002085) A Risky Investment?

万丰奥威(SZSE:002085)是否是一项高风险投资?
Simply Wall St ·  06/16 20:20

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002085) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

伯克希尔哈撒韦的Charlie Munger支持的外部基金经理Li Lu毫不含糊地说,“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。”所以看来聪明的资金知道,通常与破产有关的债务是评估公司风险的非常重要的因素。我们可以看到,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮有限公司(SZSE:002085)确实在业务中使用了债务。但持股人应该担心它使用债务吗?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时有危险?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

当债务和其他负债不能用自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资本来轻松履行这些义务时,它们就会对企业构成风险。资本主义的一个重要方面是“创造性破坏”过程,即银行家们无情地清算失败的企业。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,企业必须以低价格募集新的股本资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的利益。当然,有许多公司使用债务来资助增长,没有任何负面后果。考虑企业使用多少债务是首要的,首先要看的是其现金和债务的总和。

What Is Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel's Debt?

浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的债务是什么?

As you can see below, Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel had CN¥4.33b of debt at March 2024, down from CN¥5.39b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.92b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥2.41b.

如下所示,截至2024年3月,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的债务为人民币43.3亿,比去年同期的人民币53.9亿下降。然而,由于其现金储备为人民币19.2亿,其净债务为约人民币24.1亿。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002085 Debt to Equity History June 17th 2024
SZSE:002085历史上的负债权益比例于2024年6月17日

How Healthy Is Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel's Balance Sheet?

浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的资产负债表状况如何?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel had liabilities of CN¥6.96b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.18b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.92b as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.38b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥1.83b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

从最新的资产负债表数据中可以看到,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮有12个月内到期的人民币6.96亿的负债,以及超过12个月到期的人民币1.18亿的负债。与此相抵消的是,它有价值人民币19.2亿的现金以及在12个月内到期的应收账款。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多出人民币18.3亿。

Since publicly traded Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel shares are worth a total of CN¥30.9b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

公开交易的浙江万丰奥威汽车轮股份总价值为人民币30.9亿,因此这种程度的负债似乎不会构成主要威胁。但是,有足够的负债我们肯定会建议股东继续关注资产负债表的变化。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。

Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel has net debt of just 1.1 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 7.6 times, which is more than adequate. Fortunately, Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel grew its EBIT by 8.3% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的净债务与EBITDA的比率仅为1.1倍,这表明它肯定不会是一位鲁莽的借贷者。它拥有6.6倍的利息覆盖率,这是完全足够的。幸运的是,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮去年EBIT增长了8.3%,使其债务负载看起来更加可控。资产负债表显然是分析债务的重点,但是最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定浙江万丰奥威汽车轮是否可以长期加强其资产负债表实力。因此,如果你想看专业人士的看法,可以查看该分析师利润预测的免费报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel recorded free cash flow worth 65% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

但是,我们最后要考虑的也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要现金偿还。因此,我们明确需要查看EBIT是否带来相应的自由现金流。在最近的三年中,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的自由现金流相当于其EBIT的65%左右,这是正常情况,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税费。这种自由现金流使该公司具备良好的债务偿还能力。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And its net debt to EBITDA is good too. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

好消息是,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮把EBIT转换为自由现金流的能力,令我们像松软的小狗一样高兴。其净债务与EBITDA的比率也不错。从上面的各种因素来看,浙江万丰奥威汽车轮对债务的使用看起来相当明智。虽然这带来了一些风险,但也可以提高股东的回报率。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中。我们已经确定了浙江万丰奥威汽车轮的三个警示信号(至少有两个不太适合我们),了解它们应该是你投资过程的一部分。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发