A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000402)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000402)
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Financial Street Holdings is CN¥2.68 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of CN¥2.65 suggests Financial Street Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for 402 is CN¥4.39, which is 64% above our fair value estimate
- 基于2阶段自由现金流对股权估值,金融街控股有望 fair value 值为人民币2.68元。
- 目前人民币2.65元的股价表明金融街控股潜在以接近公允价值的价格交易。
- 分析师的目标价格为人民币4.39元,比我们公允价值估计高64%。
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000402) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
在本文中,我们将通过预测金融街控股有限公司(SZSE:000402)未来的现金流量,然后将其贴现至今天的价值来估算其内在价值。我们将利用折现现金流量(DCF)模型达成此目的。这样的模型可能超出了普通人的理解范围,但它们是相当易于理解的。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司可以通过多种方式进行估值,我们不得不指出DCF并非适用于每种情况。如果您想学习更多有关贴现现金流背后的原理,请详细阅读Simply Wall St分析模型。
Step By Step Through The Calculation
通过计算的步骤:
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们将使用两段式折现现金流模型,正如其名称所示,它考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个增长较高的时期,随着第二个“稳定增长”阶段进入终端价值,逐渐趋于平稳。首先,我们需要估算未来十年的现金流量。鉴于我们无法获得任何分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们只能推断该公司在上次报告的价值中自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将减缓缩减速度,并且自由现金流增长的公司将在此期间看到其增长率放缓,以反映增长在早期的放缓通常比晚期更多。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
DCF的核心理念是未来的一美元价值不如现在的一美元,因此我们将这些未来现金流折现至今天的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.17b | CN¥1.44b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥944.4m | CN¥853.1m | CN¥802.8m | CN¥776.6m | CN¥765.6m | CN¥764.7m | CN¥770.8m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -49.45% | Est @ -33.74% | Est @ -22.75% | Est @ -15.05% | Est @ -9.67% | Est @ -5.90% | Est @ -3.26% | Est @ -1.41% | Est @ -0.12% | Est @ 0.79% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 14% | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.1k | CN¥747 | CN¥556 | CN¥440 | CN¥363 | CN¥307 | CN¥265 | CN¥232 | CN¥205 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) | 21.7亿人民币 | 1.44十亿人民币 | 11.1亿元人民币 | 人民币944.4万元 | 人民币853.1万元 | 人民币802.8万元 | 人民币776.6万元 | 人民币765.6万元 | 人民币764.7万元 | 人民币770.8万元 |
创业板增长率预测来源 | 估算 @ -49.45% | 估算 @ -33.74% | 估算 @ -22.75% | 估算 @ -15.05% | 估算 @ -9.67% | 估算 @ -5.90% | 估算 @ -3.26% | 预计@ -1.41% | Est@-0.12% | 预期为0.79% |
以14%折现的现值(人民币,百万) | 人民币1.9k | 人民币1.1千元 | CN¥747 | 人民币556元 | 人民币440元 | CN¥363 | 307元人民币 | CN¥265 | CN¥232 | 人民币205元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.1b
("Est" = FCF增长率估计由Simply Wall St)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = CN¥6.1亿
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 14%.
第二阶段也被称为终止阶段,这是业务在第一阶段后的现金流。由于许多原因,采用非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)来预测未来的增长。与10年'增长'期同样的方式,我们使用14%的权益成本现值折现未来现金流到今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥771m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (14%– 2.9%) = CN¥7.0b
终止价值(TV)= FCF2033×(1+g)÷(r-g) = CN¥771百万×(1+2.9%)÷(14%–2.9%) = CN¥7.0亿
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥7.0b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= CN¥1.9b
终止价值现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥7.0亿÷(1+14%)10= CN¥1.9亿
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥2.7, the company appears about fair value at a 0.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
总价值或权益价值是未来现金流的现值之和,该价值为CN¥8.0亿。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总股本。相比于目前的股价CN¥2.7,该公司的内在价值看起来相对合理,折价率为0.9%。但是估值是不太精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——稍微偏离一点就会进入不同的星系。请记住这一点。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240617/0-d417c5b4791d3941c417bf5e07b2e4f0-0-46bad6fd70b833926aa5563d6a6bc3d2.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Financial Street Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出,现金流折现的最重要输入是折现率和实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您重新计算并尝试不同的输入。现金流折现也没有考虑一个行业的可能循环性,或公司未来的资本需求,因此它不能完整地展示公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们正在考虑Financial Street Holdings作为潜在股东,因此采用的折现率是权益成本,而不是包括债务的资本成本(加权平均成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了14%的折现率,基于2.000的杠杆贝塔。贝塔是一种衡量股票波动性的指标,与整个市场相比。我们从全球类似公司的平均贝塔中获得我们的贝塔值,强加限制在0.8和2.0之间,这是一个稳定企业的合理范围。
Next Steps:
下一步:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Financial Street Holdings, we've compiled three important aspects you should look at:
虽然很重要,但现金流折现计算不应该是您研究一家公司时的唯一指标。用DCF模型无法得到一个完美的估值。最好默认不同情况和假设,并看到它们将如何影响公司的估值。例如,如果终止价值增长率略微调整,它可以极大地改变整体结果。对于Financial Street Holdings,我们已编制了三个您应该关注的重要方面:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Financial Street Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 000402's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 风险:例如,我们发现了一些警示标志,提醒您在此投资之前需注意。
- 未来收益:000402的增长率如何与其同行和更广泛的市场相比?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其所覆盖的每只中国股票的DCF计算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。