What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO), so let's see why.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Melco Resorts & Entertainment:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.056 = US$398m ÷ (US$8.1b - US$1.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

Thus, Melco Resorts & Entertainment has an ROCE of 5.6%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 10%.

In the above chart we have measured Melco Resorts & Entertainment's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Melco Resorts & Entertainment .

The Trend Of ROCE

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Melco Resorts & Entertainment. About five years ago, returns on capital were 8.3%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Melco Resorts & Entertainment becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line On Melco Resorts & Entertainment's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 63% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing Melco Resorts & Entertainment, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

While Melco Resorts & Entertainment isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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