Fed Will Cut Interest Rates — But When? Most Investors Agree It Won't Be July, Bank Of America Says
Fed Will Cut Interest Rates — But When? Most Investors Agree It Won't Be July, Bank Of America Says
The Fed has maintained its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.5% range since July 2023 to counter inflationary pressures.According to Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey, investors are confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least twice in the next year.
根据美国银行月度全球基金经理调查，投资者对美联储在未来一年内至少两次降息持有信心。
What Happened: Here's a breakdown of the findings, per Barron's:
以下是该调查结果的详细情况（根据Barron's）：
- 84% of investors anticipate a rate cut sometime in 2024.
- 33% of respondents foresee two rate cuts in the coming year.
- 31% predict three cuts.
- 14% expect more than three reductions.
- 8% believe the Fed will maintain current rates throughout the period.
- 39% of investors predict a rate cut in September.
- 16% expect a cut in November.
- 23% foresee a cut in December.
- 6% believe a rate cut will occur as early as July.
- 84％的投资者预计在2024年某个时候会进行降息。
- 33％的受访者预测未来一年将有两次降息。
- 31％的受访者预测将有三次降息。
- 14％的受访者预期将有三次以上降息。
- 8％的受访者认为美联储将在整个时期内保持当前利率不变。
- 39％的投资者预测9月会降息。
- 16％的投资者预测11月将降息。
- 23％的投资者预测12月将降息。
- 6％的投资者认为将在7月进行降息。
Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact the economy, borrowing costs, interest rates and the stock market.
为什么重要：美联储的利率决策对经济、借贷成本、利率和股票市场都有重要影响。
The Fed has maintained its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.5% range since July 2023 to counter inflationary pressures.
自2023年7月以来，美联储一直将其基准政策利率维持在5.25％-5.5％的范围内，以应对通货膨胀压力。
Its projections, released earlier this month, indicate the median forecast of all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year.
美联储本月早些时候公布的预测显示，所有19名美国央行行长的中值预测是今年进行一次降息。
When? Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, says "toward the end of the year."
什么时候？明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）表示，“年底时期”。
What's Next: The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held July 30-31.
下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议将于7月30日至31日举行。
At last month's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on fears of rate hikes, deeming them as "unlikely."
在上个月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）回应了加息担忧，称其“不太可能”。
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.075% at last check Tuesday, while bonds, as gauged by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) were 0.52% higher.
价格行情：截至上周二最后检查，标普500 ETF信托基金（SPY）上涨0.075％，债券方面，由iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT）衡量，涨幅为0.52％。
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