We Think Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
华伦·巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性和风险远不是同义词。”当我们考察风险的时候,考虑公司的资产负债表是再自然不过的了,因为很多公司都会因为债务问题而破产。我们注意到Kinetic Development Group Limited(HKG:1277)在其资产负债表上确实有债务。但这种债务是否会对股东构成风险呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务对于企业来说,在它们能够偿还债务的时候,可以帮助它们扩大业务,或者利用自由现金流来偿还债务。资本主义的核心是“创造性破坏”这个过程,失败的企业会被银行无情地清算。不过,在实际情况中,默认、重组、再融资等方式要常见得多。但是,最常见的情况是企业能够合理地运用债务,并且老鼠咬一口的债务没办法对大象造成威胁。当我们思考一家公司的债务时,我们首先看现金和债务的组合情况。
What Is Kinetic Development Group's Debt?
Kinetic Development Group的债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Kinetic Development Group had CN¥1.30b of debt, an increase on CN¥883.0m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥954.7m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥348.1m.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但是数据显示到2023年12月,Kinetic Development Group有1.3亿人民币的债务,比去年的8.83亿人民币有所增加。但是,由于其拥有9.547亿人民币的现金储备,因此其净债务只有约3.481亿元人民币。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240619/0-fe6e37f225eb878adbaa53c065a7e7d0-0-195af5804feb43776c5cb7f4d0074168.png/big)
A Look At Kinetic Development Group's Liabilities
看看Kinetic Development Group的负债情况
According to the last reported balance sheet, Kinetic Development Group had liabilities of CN¥2.57b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥945.6m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥954.7m as well as receivables valued at CN¥178.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥2.38b.
根据最近公布的资产负债表,Kinetic Development Group在12个月内应偿还的负债为25.7亿元人民币,超过12个月应偿还的负债为9.456亿元人民币。虽然有95.47亿元人民币的现金,以及在12个月内到期的应收账款,但它的负债仍然超过了它的现金和(短期)应收账款总和约23.8亿元人民币。虽然Kinetic Development Group的负债高,但它的市值为80.7亿元人民币,所以如果需要,它可能可以通过增发股份来加强其资产负债表。但我们肯定要密切关注其债务是否带来过多的风险。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Kinetic Development Group has a market capitalization of CN¥8.07b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
我们注意到,Kinetic Development Group的净债务仅为其息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的0.13倍,而其息税前利润(EBIT)轻松覆盖了其利息支出,是其55.7倍,因此有人可以认为其没有因为其债务而受到威胁。由于Kinetic Development Group的EBIT在过去一年中下降了33%,所以其负担不大也是一个好事。当一家公司的收益率下降时,有时其与贷款人的关系可能会变得紧张。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上可以了解债务的情况。但是,您不能完全孤立地看待债务的情况,因为即使Kinetic Development Group想要偿还债务,也需要获得收益。因此,在考虑债务时,肯定要注意收益趋势。按此获得交互式快照。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。
Kinetic Development Group's net debt is only 0.13 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 55.7 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. It is just as well that Kinetic Development Group's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 33% over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kinetic Development Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
最后,公司只能用现金偿还债务,而不能用会计利润来进行偿还。因此,我们始终核查其中多少EBIT转化为自由现金流。在过去三年中,Kinetic Development Group产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其EBIT的65%,这是我们预期的情况。这样的确可以使公司有足够的现金来在适当的时候偿还债务。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinetic Development Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 65% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
基于我们所看到的,尽管Kinetic Development Group的EBIT增长率不高,但我们考虑到的其他因素使我们对其感到乐观。特别是,我们对其利息覆盖率印象深刻。当我们考虑所有上述因素时,我们认为Kinetic Development Group很好地管理了其债务。但警惕:我们认为债务水平高到需要不断监控。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显位置。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表以外的风险。为此,您需要知晓我们在Kinetic Development Group中发现的一个警示信号。
Our View
我们的观点
Based on what we've seen Kinetic Development Group is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Kinetic Development Group is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kinetic Development Group .
基于我们所看到的,尽管Kinetic Development Group的EBIT增长率不高,但我们考虑到的其他因素使我们对其感到乐观。特别是,我们对其利息覆盖率印象深刻。当我们考虑所有上述因素时,我们认为Kinetic Development Group很好地管理了其债务。但警惕:我们认为债务水平高到需要不断监控。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显位置。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表以外的风险。为此,您需要知晓我们在Kinetic Development Group中发现的一个警示信号。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
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