US Treasuries Set To Break Even After Rocky First Half Of 2024
US Treasuries Set To Break Even After Rocky First Half Of 2024
U.S. Treasuries are poised to come in even despite having a very volatile first six months of 2024.
尽管2024年上半年非常波动，但美国国债仍有望收缩。
A Bloomberg index of returns in this bond market has declined a mere 0.1% for the year. It fell as much as 3.4% in April.
彭博债券市场回报指数今年仅下降了0.1％。 4月份下跌了最多3.4％。
The rebound indicates that investor outlook might be positive in light of falling U.S. prices prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner.
反弹表明，鉴于美国价格下跌促使联邦储备委员会尽快降息，投资者的展望可能是积极的。
"We've seen the peak in yields," Stephen Miller, investment strategist at GSFM in Sydney, told Bloomberg. "Bonds are now back as having a deserved place in a multi-asset portfolio."
"我们已看到收益率峰值，"悉尼GSFM的投资策略师Stephen Miller告诉彭博社。 "债券现在回到了在多资产组合中应该拥有的位置。"
Treasuries have been sent in opposite directions in 2024 as policy-sensitive two-year yields have soared above 5% in April as fears over higher-for-longer U.S. rates spurred investors to dump bonds.
随着担心美国的高利率引发投资者抛售债券，政策敏感的两年期收益率在2024年中被推高至5％以上，从而导致国债朝相反方向发展。
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They have since returned to around 4.7% as inflation-to-retail-sales data suggested the U.S. economy may finally be cooling enough to justify lower borrowing costs.
随着通胀对零售销售数据的影响，美国经济可能终于达到了降低借贷成本的程度，因此二年期国债收益率已回升至约4.7％。
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday that it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to reduce rates "sometime later this year" if economic conditions unfold as anticipated.
美联储理事Adriana Kugler周二表示，如果经济状况如预期一样发展，央行很可能在"今年晚些时候"降息。
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in his first major policy speech that it could take "quarters" for the data to support a cut.
圣路易斯联邦储备银行主席Alberto Musalem在他的第一次主要政策演讲中表示，数据支持降息可能需要"几季度"时间。
Volatility in the $27 trillion Treasury market has fallen from recent highs as the views of the Fed and investors over the number of rate cuts expected this year have begun to gel.
$27万亿国债市场的波动性已从最近的高点下降，因为美联储和投资者对今年将会有多少利率削减的看法开始融合。
The ICE BofA MOVE Index — a gauge of bond volatility that tracks anticipated swings in US yields based on options — is hovering at about 98, down from an April high of 121, Bloomberg reported.
彭博社报道，追踪基于期权预测的美国收益率预期波动的ICE BofA MOVE指数目前约为98，距离4月份的高点121下降。
Price Action: SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:BIL) remained flat before Thursday's opening bell, while iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) declined 0.4%; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) fell 1% in pre-market trading on Thursday.
价格走势：SPDR彭博1-3个月国库券ETF（NYSE：BIL）周四开盘前保持不变，而美国国债7-10年ETF-iShares（NASDAQ：IEF）下降0.4％； iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（纳斯达克：TLT）在周四的美股盘前交易中下跌了1％。
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