Shareholders of Patterson Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ:PDCO) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$25.38 following its latest full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$6.6b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.98. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Patterson Companies' twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$6.74b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 2.9% to US$2.06 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.10 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$28.45, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Patterson Companies at US$31.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Patterson Companies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Patterson Companies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Patterson Companies is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Patterson Companies. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Patterson Companies' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Patterson Companies analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Patterson Companies has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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