These 4 Measures Indicate That Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) Is Using Debt Extensively
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited (HKG:548) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
作为投资者,有人认为波动性而不是债务是风险考虑的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过“波动性远非风险的同义词”。当你检查一家公司的风险时,考虑其资产负债表是再自然不过的了,因为债务通常在企业破产时会牵涉其中。我们注意到,深高速公路股份有限公司(HKG:548)的负债表上确实有债务。但这是否会给股东带来担忧呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当债务和其他负债对一家企业来说难以便捷地履行那些义务,无论是通过自由现金流还是以优惠价格发行股本来履行时,其就会面临风险。最终,如果该公司无法履行偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能一分钱都拿不到。但更常见的(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,它必须以低价发行新股权,从而永久地稀释股东的权益。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司合理地管理其债务,并以自身的利益为前提。当我们思考一家公司的债务使用时,首先要关注现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does Shenzhen Expressway Carry?
深高速公路负载了多少债务?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Shenzhen Expressway had CN¥32.9b of debt, an increase on CN¥31.0b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥3.66b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥29.3b.
你可以点击下面的图表查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2024年3月,深高速公路负载着329亿元的债务,比一年前的310亿元有所增加。另一方面,深高速公路也拥有36.6亿元的现金,净债务约为293亿元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240621/0-dd73bb421446030ef47c14d1ac9f2287-0-b426957ae2afd60ce2a3edda50bb1f28.png/big)
How Strong Is Shenzhen Expressway's Balance Sheet?
深高速公路的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenzhen Expressway had liabilities of CN¥19.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥19.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.66b in cash and CN¥2.09b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥33.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根据最近一份资产负债表,深高速公路有197亿元的短期负债和193亿元的长期负债。虽然有短期应收账款的36.6亿元和应收账款的20.9亿元,但总负债比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高33.3亿元。这个赤字就像是高耸在普通人头顶上的巨人,给这家公司带来了许多负面影响。因此,我们认为股东需要密切关注。毕竟,如果深高速公路必须今天向债权人支付债务,它可能需要进行大规模再融资。
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥20.5b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Shenzhen Expressway would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
深高速公路目前的情况确实让人担忧,因为其净债务与EBITDA比率为6.0,但非常强的利息覆盖率为0.1万。这意味着它要么拥有非常便宜的长期债务,要么其利息支出将会增长!在过去的十二个月中,我们看到深高速公路的营收利润增长了6.8%。虽然这没有让我们感到非常兴奋,但在债务方面是一个积极的表现。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。
As it happens Shenzhen Expressway has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.0 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! We saw Shenzhen Expressway grow its EBIT by 6.8% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shenzhen Expressway can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
资产负债表显然是分析债务时的重点。但最终,企业未来的盈利能力将决定深高速公路能否随时间加强其资产负债表。所以,如果你想知道专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份免费的分析师利润预测报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Expressway produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
但我们最后考虑的也是很重要的,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务,它需要现金。因此,逻辑上应该看到EBIT的多少被实际的自由现金流所匹配。在过去的三年中,深高速公路所产生的可靠的自由现金流相当于其EBIT的64%,这正是我们所期望的。这些冷酷的现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。
Our View
我们的观点
Neither Shenzhen Expressway's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. It's also worth noting that Shenzhen Expressway is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Shenzhen Expressway is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Shenzhen Expressway is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
从总负债的处理能力,深高速公路的净债务与EBITDA比率都没有让我们对其应对更多债务的能力有信心。但它的利息覆盖率却讲述了一个截然不同的故事,表明它非常有韧性。值得注意的是,深高速公路处于制造业行业,这通常被认为是相当防御性的。当我们考虑到所有讨论的因素时,我们认为深高速公路在利用债务方面存在一定风险。虽然债务可以提高回报率,但我们认为该公司现在已经有足够的杠杆。资产负债表显然是分析债务时的重点。但最终,企业未来的盈利能力将决定深高速公路能否随时间加强其资产负债表。所以,如果你想知道专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份免费的分析师利润预测报告很有趣。然而,并非所有的投资风险都在资产负债表内部存在。请注意,深高速公路在我们的投资分析中显示出了2个警告信号,其中1个信号是显著的。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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