Here's Why Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Here's Why Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
当你考虑一个股票的风险时,需要考虑负债情况,因为过高的负债可能会拖垮一家公司。商业金属公司(NYSE:CMC)有负债,但更重要的问题是:这些债务造成多大风险?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
当债务和其他负债无法通过自由现金流或以有吸引力价格筹集资本来满足并且无法进行有效清算时,它们会对公司造成风险。创业过程中必然会有“创造性破坏”的过程,即失败的企业被银行家无情地清算。然而,更频繁但同样昂贵的情况是,公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东资产,以稳固其资产负债表。当然,债务所带来的好处是它通常代表了廉价的资本,尤其是在取代股权稀释的情况下,公司能以高回报率重新投资。考虑一家企业使用多少债务时,首要要做的就是看看其现金和债务的总和。
What Is Commercial Metals's Net Debt?
商业金属的净债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Commercial Metals had US$1.05b of debt in February 2024, down from US$1.29b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$638.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$413.6m.
你可以点击下面的图表查看历史数字,它显示商业金属在2024年2月有10.5亿美元的债务,而一年前有12.9亿美元的债务。相反,它有6.383亿美元的现金,导致净债务约为4.136亿美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240621/0-56324edf8521e91b0ad4d9e1458592a9-0-41ccc2fc4d020ea823f12d5229812d70.png/big)
How Strong Is Commercial Metals' Balance Sheet?
商业金属的资产负债表有多强?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Commercial Metals had liabilities of US$762.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.68b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$638.3m and US$1.12b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$682.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新资产负债表显示,商业金属有7.625亿美元的短期到期负债和16.8亿美元的长期到期负债。另一方面,它有6.383亿美元的现金和11.2亿美元的短期应收账款。所以它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多了6.828亿美元。
Given Commercial Metals has a market capitalization of US$5.87b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
鉴于商业金属的市值为58.7亿美元,很难相信这些负债会带来很大的威胁。但话说回来,很明显我们应该继续监测它的资产负债表,以防意外恶化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了对公司的债务相对于其收益进行规模适应,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比及其税前收益(EBIT)与利息支出之比(利息保障倍数)。因此,我们既考虑到不包括折旧和摊销费用在内的收益,又包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务。
Commercial Metals has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.35. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 23.0 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. It is just as well that Commercial Metals's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 32% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Commercial Metals can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
商业金属的净债务与EBITDA比率仅为0.35。其EBIT覆盖其利息开支23.0倍之多。因此,你可以认为它受到债务威胁就像大象受到老鼠的威胁一样。商业金属的EBIT在过去一年中下降了32%,这样很明显对偿还债务来说并不有利。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定商业金属是否能随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费报告,展示了分析师的利润预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Commercial Metals's free cash flow amounted to 40% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
但我们最后要考虑的也同样重要,因为公司无法用虚假的利润来偿还债务,它需要的是实打实的现金。因此,查看这些EBIT由多少自由现金流支持是值得的。在过去三年中,商业金属的自由现金流仅占其EBIT的40%,低于预期。在偿还债务方面,这并不理想。
Our View
我们的观点
Commercial Metals's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Commercial Metals's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Commercial Metals (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
商业金属的EBIT增长率在本分析中的确受到负面影响,尽管我们考虑的其他因素要好得多。它的EBIT与利息费用的覆盖率相当不错。查看所有这些数据让我们对商业金属的债务水平感到有些谨慎。虽然债务确实有其上行潜力,但我们认为股东应该注意债务水平可能使该股更具风险的因素。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但并非所有投资风险都存于资产负债表之中——远非如此。例如,我们发现了商业金属投资的两个警示信号(其中之一不应被忽略!),在进行投资之前应该注意这些。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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