Are Investors Undervaluing Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603906) By 22%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603906) By 22%?
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Jiangsu Lopal Tech is CN¥9.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Jiangsu Lopal Tech's CN¥7.75 share price signals that it might be 22% undervalued
- Peers of Jiangsu Lopal Tech are currently trading on average at a 519% premium
- 基于2阶段自由现金流预估,江苏洛浦科技的公允价值为9.98元人民币。
- 江苏洛浦科技的7.75元人民币的股价表明其可能被低估了22%。
- 江苏洛浦科技的同行业公司目前平均溢价519%。
Does the June share price for Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603906) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
六月份江苏洛浦科技股票的股价是否反映了其真正价值?今天我们将通过预估未来现金流并将其折现到今天的价值来计算该公司的内在价值。我们将用折现现金流模型对其进行分析,这听起来很复杂,但实际上非常简单!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我们普遍认为一家公司的价值是其未来所产生的现金的现值总和。然而,DCF仅是众多估值指标之一,并且并不是不带缺陷。如果您想了解更多关于折现现金流的信息,可以在 Simply Wall St 分析模型中详细阅读其背后的理论。
Crunching The Numbers
数据统计
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们将使用一个两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,它考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个增速较快的周期,随着第二个“稳定增长”周期的到来,增速趋于平稳,价值也随着变化。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于我们没有可用的自由现金流分析师预测,因此我们必须从公司上次公布的值中推断出前期自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设其自由现金流缩小的公司的缩减速度会减缓,并且其自由现金流增长的公司的增长率会在这段时间内逐渐减缓。我们这样做是为了反映出增长在早年比后期减缓得更快。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由现金流 (FCF) 预估值
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥355.6m | CN¥450.2m | CN¥537.9m | CN¥616.0m | CN¥684.0m | CN¥742.7m | CN¥793.9m | CN¥839.0m | CN¥879.7m | CN¥917.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 36.76% | Est @ 26.60% | Est @ 19.49% | Est @ 14.52% | Est @ 11.03% | Est @ 8.59% | Est @ 6.88% | Est @ 5.69% | Est @ 4.85% | Est @ 4.27% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 14% | CN¥313 | CN¥348 | CN¥365 | CN¥368 | CN¥359 | CN¥343 | CN¥322 | CN¥299 | CN¥276 | CN¥253 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) | 人民币355.6百万元 | 人民币450.2百万元 | 人民币537.9百万元 | 人民币616.0百万元 | 人民币684.0百万元 | 人民币742.7百万元 | 人民币793.9百万元 | 人民币839.0百万元 | 人民币879.7百万元 | 人民币917.3百万元 |
创业板增长率预测来源 | 预估值为36.76%的情况下 | 预估值为26.60%的情况下 | 预估值为19.49%的情况下 | 预估值为14.52%的情况下 | 预估值为11.03%的情况下 | 预期8.59% | 以6.88%为估计值 | 估计 @ 5.69% | 4.85%时的估计值 | 以4.27%的预计增长率计算 |
以14%折现的现值(人民币,百万) | 人民币313 | 348元人民币 | CN¥365 | CN¥368 | CN¥359 | CN¥343 | CN¥322 | CN¥299 | 人民币276元 | CN¥253 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.2b
("Est" = FCF增长率估计由Simply Wall St)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF)= CN¥3.2b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 14%.
现在,我们需要计算终端价值,即考虑这十年结束后的所有未来现金流。由于有多种原因,我们使用了一种非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用十年政府债券收益率的5年平均数(2.9%)来估计未来增长。与十年“增长”期一样,我们将未来的现金流贴现到今天的价值,使用权益成本率为14%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥917m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (14%– 2.9%) = CN¥8.7b
终止价值(TV)= FCF2033×(1+ g)÷(r-g)= CN¥917m×(1+2.9%)÷(14%-2.9%)= CN¥8.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥8.7b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= CN¥2.4b
终止价值现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10=CN¥8.7b÷(1+14%)10= 24亿人民币
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥5.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥7.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 22% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
总价值或股本价值即未来现金流的现值之和,在本例中为CN¥5.6b。在最后一步中,我们将股本价值除以流通股数量。与当前股价CN¥7.8相比,公司的估值略低,降幅为22%。请记住,这只是一个大约的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样——输出的结果只有在输入正确的情况下才是正确的。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240625/0-9d87f560c143c7a77c152515aa85e118-0-5c7630c01f64c5b0a9289cc9a124a054.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假设
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangsu Lopal Tech as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.929. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上述计算非常依赖两个假设。第一个是折现率,另一个是现金流。不必同意这些输入,我建议您重新计算并进行调整。DCF也没有考虑行业可能的周期性,或公司未来的资本需求,因此不能完全描述公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将江苏洛珀尔科技视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本率而不是资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)作为折现率。在这个计算中,我们使用了14%,这是基于1.929的资产负债率Beta。Beta是比较一支股票相对于整个市场的波动性的一种度量。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均Beta获得Beta,强加在0.8和2.0之间的限制是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
Next Steps:
下一步:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Jiangsu Lopal Tech, we've compiled three relevant elements you should look at:
尽管公司的估值很重要,但在研究一家公司时,它不应该是您考虑的唯一指标。通过DCF模型无法获得百分之百的可靠估值。相反,DCF模型最好的用途是测试某些假设和理论,以查看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果调整终端价值增长率,则可能会显着改变整体结果。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于江苏洛珀尔科技,我们总结了应该考虑的三个相关因素:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jiangsu Lopal Tech .
- Future Earnings: How does 603906's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 风险:为此,您应该了解我们在江苏洛珀尔科技上发现的1个警告信号。
- 未来收益:603906的增长率如何与同行和更广泛的市场相比?通过与我们的自由分析师增长预期图表进行交互,深入挖掘未来几年分析师共识数。
- 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天为SHSE上的每只股票进行贴现现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算,请在此搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。