Calculating The Fair Value Of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183)
Key Insights
主要见解
- Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥10.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of CN¥11.35 suggests Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -258%
- 根据2阶段自由现金流股权估值法,青岛东软通信技术股份有限公司的预期公允价值为人民币10.63元。
- 青岛东软通信技术股份有限公司当前的股价为人民币11.35元,表明其潜在交易价值接近其公允价值。
- 根据行业平均-258%的数据,青岛东软通信技术股份有限公司的同行业估值溢价水平较高。
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300183) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
今天我们将通过一个方法来估算青岛东软通信技术股份有限公司(SZSE:300183)的内在价值,即通过预期未来现金流并将其贴现到现值。我们将利用贴现现金流模型(DCF)来实现这一目的。虽然听起来很复杂,但其实很简单!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司可以用很多种方式进行估值,因此我们指出DCF并不适用于每一种情况。 如果您仍然对这种估值方法有疑问,请查看Simply Wall St分析模型。
The Calculation
计算方法
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们采用了所谓的2级模型,这意味着我们为公司的现金流涨幅设定了两个不同的时间段。一般来说,第一阶段增长较快,第二阶段则是增长较慢的阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年的业务现金流。由于我们无法使用任何自由现金流的分析师估计值,因此我们需要从公司的上一个报告的现金自由流量(FCF)进行推算。我们假设自由现金流减少的公司将减缓其减少速度,而自由现金流增长的公司将在这个时间段内看到其增长速度变慢。我们这样做是为了反映增长在初期年份的减速程度比晚期年份的减速程度更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍认为今天的一美元比将来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要贴现这些未来的现金流总和来得出现值估计:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥191.6m | CN¥217.4m | CN¥239.7m | CN¥259.1m | CN¥276.0m | CN¥291.0m | CN¥304.6m | CN¥317.2m | CN¥329.1m | CN¥340.7m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 17.96% | Est @ 13.44% | Est @ 10.28% | Est @ 8.07% | Est @ 6.52% | Est @ 5.43% | Est @ 4.67% | Est @ 4.14% | Est @ 3.77% | Est @ 3.51% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1% | CN¥177 | CN¥186 | CN¥190 | CN¥190 | CN¥187 | CN¥183 | CN¥177 | CN¥171 | CN¥164 | CN¥157 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) | 人民币191.6百万元 | 人民币217.4百万元 | 人民币239.7百万元 | 人民币259.1百万元 | 人民币276.0百万元 | 人民币291.0百万元 | 人民币304.6百万元 | 人民币317.2百万元 | 人民币329.1百万元 | 人民币340.7百万元 |
创业板增长率预测来源 | 预计增长率为17.96%时 | 预计增长率为13.44%时 | 预计增长率为10.28%时 | 按8.07%估算 | 估值:6.52% | 以5.43%的速度估算 | 以3.99%估算的金额 | 预期增长率 4.14% | 以3.77%为估计值 | 预计@ 3.51% |
现值(百万人民币)贴现率为8.1% | 177人民币 | 186人民币 | CN¥190 | CN¥190 | 人民币187元 | 人民币183元 | 177人民币 | 171元人民币 | 人民币164 | 157元人民币 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.8b
("Est" = FCF增长率估计由Simply Wall St)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF)= 18亿人民币
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它包括此十年期后所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,我们使用非常保守的增长率,它不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年均值(2.9%)来估计未来增长。与10年的'增长'期相同,我们使用权益成本率8.1%将未来现金流贴现至今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥341m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.1%– 2.9%) = CN¥6.8b
终止价值(TV)= FCF2033 ×(1 + g)÷(r-g)=人民币341百万元×(1 + 2.9%)÷(8.1%–2.9%)=人民币6.8十亿
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥6.8b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= CN¥3.1b
终止价值现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10 =人民币6.8十亿÷(1 + 8.1%)=10人民币3.1十亿
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥4.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥11.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
总价值或股权价值等于未来现金流的现值之和,本例中为49亿元人民币。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数。与当前的11.4元人民币的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司似乎在公平价值附近。但请记住,这只是一个近似估值,并且像任何复杂的公式一样,垃圾进,垃圾出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240625/0-e9dad7301317f8d75cd4b79ee76f790f-0-613283470dad32c03360df633fb9746d.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.915. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们指出折现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率和实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您重新计算并进行调整。 DCF模型还未考虑行业的周期性可能性或公司未来的资本需求,因此不能完全反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们作为潜在股东正在寻找青岛东软通信技术有限公司,所以使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.1%,该数字基于0.915的杠杆贝塔。 Beta是一只股票与整个市场波动率的比较。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值中获得我们的贝塔值,强制限制在0.8至2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
Moving On:
接下来:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd, we've put together three additional factors you should further research:
尽管公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不应是您仔细审查公司的唯一分析片段。DCF模型并不是完美的股票估值工具。最好您可以应用不同的情境和假设,并查看它们如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司的权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会显着影响估值。关于青岛东软通信技术有限公司,我们还整理了三个附加因素供您进一步研究:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Qingdao Eastsoft Communication TechnologyLtd (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
- 风险:例如,我们发现了三个预警信号,其中一个非常重要,您在此之前应该注意在青岛东软通信技术有限公司进行投资。
- 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!
- 其他分析师推荐:有兴趣看看分析师的想法吗?请查看我们的交互式分析师股票推荐列表,以了解他们认为哪些股票具有有吸引力的未来前景!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS:Simply Wall St应用程序每天为深交所上市的每只股票进行贴现现金流估值。如果您想查找其他股票的计算,请在此搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。