Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Tuesday that it is premature to lower the policy rate, and indicated her readiness to support further rate hikes if inflation worsens.
While giving a speech in London, Bowman noted that "we have seen only modest further progress on inflation" in 2024 and warned that increased immigration and continued labor market tightness could sustain high core services inflation.
Bowman highlighted that the 12-month measures of total and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation have been stable or slightly declined since December, standing at 2.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, in April.
The consumer price index (CPI) report for May indicated a decrease in 12-month core CPI inflation to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in April.
However, average core CPI inflation for the year through May is 3.8 percent, higher than the second half of last year's average, suggesting elevated inflation may persist. With tight labor markets, wage growth remains high at around 4%, surpassing the level consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal given trend productivity growth.
"Looking ahead, I will be closely watching the incoming data," Bowman noted, underscoring the Fed's data-dependent stance. She expects inflation to eventually return to the 2% target, contingent on maintaining the federal funds rate at its current range of 5.25-5.50% "for some time."
"We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate," she noted, adding that she "will remain cautious in the approach to future changes in policy stance."
Bowman clarified that if data indicate inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to avoid overly restrictive monetary policy. Conversely, she maintained a hawkish stance, stating, "I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse."
Market Reactions
Following Bowman's remarks, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), saw a slight increase against major pairs between 7:00 and 8:00 a.m. ET.
The euro-dollar exchange rate dropped to about 1.07, partially reversing Monday's gains. Treasury yields remained broadly flat at the short end of the curve but fell slightly in the longer-dated part. U.S. equity futures were broadly positive in premarket trading amid a tech rebound.
Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while those on the Nasdaq increased by over 0.8%. The tech sector, as tracked by The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK), and the semiconductor industry, as tracked by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH), were up 0.7% and 1.1%,
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美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼周二表示,现在降低政策利率为时过早,如果通胀恶化,她愿意支持进一步加息。
鲍曼在伦敦演讲时指出,在2024年,通货膨胀只有适度进展,同时警告增加的移民和持续的劳动力市场紧缩可能会支撑核心服务通胀率较高。
鲍曼强调,自去年12月以来,总体和核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率的12个月计算均保持稳定或略有下降,分别在4月份为2.7%和2.8%。
5月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示,12个月的核心CPI通胀率从4月份的3.6%降至3.4%。
然而,截至5月底的核心CPI平均通胀率为3.8%,高于去年下半年的平均水平,表明高企的通胀率可能持续存在。由于劳动市场紧缩,工资增长仍然高达约4%,超过了与联邦储备委员会2%通胀目标相符合的趋势生产率增长水平。
“展望未来,我将密切关注即将到来的数据,”鲍曼指出,强调联邦储备委员会的数据依赖立场。她期望通胀最终会回到2%的目标,前提是将联邦基金利率维持在其目前的5.25-5.50%的范围内“一段时间”。
“我们还没有到降低政策利率的适当时机,”她指出,并补充说,她“将保持谨慎的态度,以应对未来政策立场的变化。”
鲍曼澄清说,如果数据表明通胀持续朝着2%的目标发展,逐渐降低联邦基金利率将变得合适,以避免过于严格的货币政策。相反,她保持鹰派立场,表示:“如果通胀进展停滞甚至逆转,将在未来的会议上继续提高联邦基金利率目标区间。”
市场反应
鲍曼发表讲话后,纽交所纳斯达克综合指数(NYSE: UUP)跟踪的英富时美元指数ETF(DXY)在美国东部时间7:00至8:00之间对所有主要货币对均略有上升。
欧元兑美元汇率下跌至约1.07,部分扭转了周一的涨势。利率走势在短期曲线端保持稳定,但在长期曲线端略有下降。美国股市期货在盘前交易中普遍上涨,科技股反弹。
标普500指数合约上涨0.3%,纳斯达克合约上涨逾0.8%。科技板块,包括能源指数etf-spdr(NYSE: XLK)所跟踪的半导体行业板块(NYSE: SMH),上涨0.7%和1.1%。
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