There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Speaking of which, we noticed some great changes in ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) returns on capital, so let's have a look.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for ZTO Express (Cayman):

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.16 = CN¥10b ÷ (CN¥90b - CN¥23b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

So, ZTO Express (Cayman) has an ROCE of 16%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Logistics industry average of 10% it's much better.

In the above chart we have measured ZTO Express (Cayman)'s prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering ZTO Express (Cayman) for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For ZTO Express (Cayman) Tell Us?

We like the trends that we're seeing from ZTO Express (Cayman). Over the last five years, returns on capital employed have risen substantially to 16%. The company is effectively making more money per dollar of capital used, and it's worth noting that the amount of capital has increased too, by 94%. The increasing returns on a growing amount of capital is common amongst multi-baggers and that's why we're impressed.

On a side note, we noticed that the improvement in ROCE appears to be partly fueled by an increase in current liabilities. The current liabilities has increased to 26% of total assets, so the business is now more funded by the likes of its suppliers or short-term creditors. It's worth keeping an eye on this because as the percentage of current liabilities to total assets increases, some aspects of risk also increase.

The Bottom Line On ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROCE

To sum it up, ZTO Express (Cayman) has proven it can reinvest in the business and generate higher returns on that capital employed, which is terrific. Considering the stock has delivered 20% to its stockholders over the last five years, it may be fair to think that investors aren't fully aware of the promising trends yet. So with that in mind, we think the stock deserves further research.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing ZTO Express (Cayman), we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

While ZTO Express (Cayman) isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com