We Think SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (SZSE:002218) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (SZSE:002218) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002218) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
传奇基金经理陆杉(得到查理·芒格的支持)曾说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。”当您评估一家公司的风险时,考虑到债务通常是业务崩溃的因素之一,因此多个财务指标需要考虑,可以看到SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司(SZSE:002218)确实在业务运行中使用了多项债务融资。但股东们是否应该担心它的债务使用情况呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务在企业没有还清它的时候会帮助企业,这要么是通过新的资本或通过自由现金流,但在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法偿还其债权人,公司就会破产。但更常见的(但仍然昂贵)情况是,公司必须在便宜的股票价格下稀释股东才能控制债务。当然,很多公司使用债务来资助业务增长,而没有任何负面后果。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是看它的现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd Carry?
SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司有多少负债?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd had debt of CN¥1.91b, up from CN¥1.39b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥770.8m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥1.13b.
下图显示,截至2024年3月,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司债务总额为190 RMB,比去年的139 RMB增长。然而,由于该公司现金储备为77.080 RMB,其净债务水平较低,约为 113 RMB。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240626/0-1820de3a83281b45400dcd730f418572-0-68d46aa09a825eebcb803f871928bfe9.png/big)
A Look At SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's Liabilities
SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的负债情况
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd had liabilities of CN¥877.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.73b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥770.8m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.40b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥444.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
我们可以从最近的资产负债表上看到,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司应于一年内支付的负债总额为87.77 RMB,应于一年以上支付的负债总额为1.73亿 RMB。抵消这些债务的是,它有77.080 RMB的现金以及收账价值为14亿的应于12个月内到期收款。所以,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款总额高444.90 RMB。
Given SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥3.96b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
考虑到SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的市值为39.6亿RMB,很难相信这些负债会带来多大的威胁。然而,很明显我们应该继续关注它的资产负债表,以防情况恶化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了考察公司债务与盈利的相对关系,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比值以及其利息支出(利息保障倍数)与利润之前的利润(EBIT)的比值。这种方法的优点是,我们考虑了与债务相关的绝对量(净债务与EBITDA)和实际利息开支(利息保障倍数)的实际利润。
While we wouldn't worry about SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.2, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.2 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's EBIT was down 68% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
虽然我们不会担心SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的净债务与EBITDA比率为3.2,但我们认为其超低的利息覆盖率为1.2倍是高杠杆的标志。这在很大程度上归因于公司的折旧及摊销费用,这些费用可能使其EBITDA成为一种非常慷慨的收益衡量指标,其债务可能比首次出现时更加沉重。显然,借钱的成本对股东的回报产生了负面影响。更糟的是,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的EBIt在过去一年中下降了68%。如果收益继续遵循这种轨迹,偿还负债将比让我们在雨中奔跑更艰难。资产负债表显然是您分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的收益情况将影响其资产负债表在未来的经营状况。因此,如果您想更多地了解其收益情况,请查看公司在创业板上长期的收益趋势图。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd reported free cash flow worth 4.6% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
最后,虽然税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冰冷的现金。因此,我们始终会检查EBIt转化为自由现金流的数量。在过去三年中,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司报告的自由现金流价值约为其EBIt的4.6%,这实际上是相当低的。这种低水平的现金转化率削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at staying on top of its total liabilities; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLARLtd (2 are significant) you should be aware of.
从表面上看,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的利息覆盖率让我们对该股持有观望态度,其EBIt增长率也不如一年中最繁忙的晚上唯一的空餐厅有吸引力。但至少它在总负债方面表现出色,这是值得鼓励的。总的来说,我们认为可以公正地说,SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司有足够的负债,从资产负债表上存在一些真正的风险存在。如果一切顺利,这可能会得到回报,但债务的不利影响是永久性损失的更大风险。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点,但不是所有的投资风险都源自资产负债表。例如,我们已经确定了SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR股份有限公司的4个警告信号(其中2个重要),您应该加以注意。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时更容易关注那些甚至不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费查看零净债务增长股票列表,立即获得。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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