Elon Musk Needs To Achieve This With Robotaxi If Tesla Wants To Take On Uber And Lyft, Until Then It's All 'Day-Dreaming,' Says Fund Manager
Elon Musk Needs To Achieve This With Robotaxi If Tesla Wants To Take On Uber And Lyft, Until Then It's All 'Day-Dreaming,' Says Fund Manager
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is due to hold its robotaxi unveil event on Aug. 8 and investors and analysts are equally excited about the opportunity it presents. Future Fund's Gary Black, a Tesla investor, on Tuesday suggested that the robotaxi may not take off strongly before the full self-driving technology is made fully unsupervised.
特斯拉股份有限公司（NASDAQ:TSLA）计划于8月8日举行机器人出租车发布会，投资者和分析师对其所带来的机会感到兴奋。未来基金的Gary Black，一位特斯拉投资者，在周二表示，在全自动驾驶技术彻底无需监管之前，机器人出租车可能不会迅速起飞。
What Happened: A Tesla influencer on X worked out the benefit-cost ratio of the Elon Musk-led company launching a ride-sharing service. His analysis showed the service offering fetching revenue at an annual run-rate of $1.4 billion to start with. The influencer said Tesla should subsidize rides on its rideshare app ahead of the robotaxi unveil and require all drivers to drive Tesla vehicles and, if possible, be highly rated on other rideshare apps.
发生了什么：一名特斯拉代言人在X上计算了埃隆·马斯克领导的公司推出拼车服务的成本效益比。他的分析显示，该服务在一开始就可以带来每年1.4亿美元的收入。代言人表示，特斯拉应该在机器人出租车发布会前给其拼车应用程序上的乘客提供补贴，并要求所有司机都驾驶特斯拉汽车，如果可能的话，并在其他拼车应用程序上获得高评价。他说，通过提供低于其竞争对手Uber和Lyft的价格的穿透性定价策略，可以增加该应用程序的知名度，并吸引用户使用它。他补充说，特斯拉应该为此使用其现金储备。
The penetrating pricing strategy of offering rides at lower prices than competition including Uber and Lyft would increase awareness about the app and also lure users to it, he said, adding that Tesla should use its cash reserves for it.
通过计算，该代言人表示，假设特斯拉的拼车数量达到3.59亿次，只有Lyft在2023年拥有这么多拼车，每笔价格为17.43美元，而Lyft的价格为19.43美元，前者可以赚取4美元，从而获得14亿美元的收入。
Working out the math, the influencer said assuming Tesla's rides number 359 million, half as much as Lyft did in 2023, and a price of $17.43 as opposed to the $19.43 Lyft charges, the $4 the former makes can fetch it revenue of $1.4 billion.
Black对该代言人的机器人出租车论文发表了评论，并说：“那些认为$TSLA可以仅提供监督（带司机）的网约车服务来与Uber和Lyft竞争，直到无人监管的网约车服务可用的人是在做白日梦。”
Black commented on the influencer's robotaxi thesis and said, "Those thinking $TSLA can just offer a supervised (with driver) ride-hailing service to compete with Uber and Lyft until unsupervised ride-hailing becomes available are day-dreaming."
该基金经理表示，他理解特斯拉设立一个专属网络并开始收集数据和获得网络效应的逻辑，但除非特斯拉降价，否则他认为这不起作用。他说：“但如果不更便宜，那么消费者怎么过来？”
The fund manager said he understands the logic of Tesla setting up an exclusive network and starting to collect data and gain network effects. But he does not see it working unless Tesla discounts pricing. "But if not cheaper, what's the consumer proposition?" he said.
那些认为$TSLA仅能提供监督（带司机）的网约车服务与Uber和Lyft竞争，直到无人监管的网约车服务可用的人是在做白日梦。我理解为什么特斯拉设立TSLA网络并开始收集数据和获得网络效应，但我认为这不起作用。
Those thinking $TSLA can just offer a supervised (with driver) ride-hailing service to compete with Uber and Lyft until unsupervised ride hailing becomes available are day-dreaming. I get why it's good for TSLA to set up a TSLA network and start collecting data and gain network...
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 25, 2024
那些认为$TSLA可以提供一个受监管的（有司机的）拼车服务与Uber和Lyft竞争，直到无人驾驶拼车变得可用，这是一厢情愿的。我理解为什么特斯拉建立TSLA网络并开始收集数据和获得网络效应很好。不过，除非特斯拉降价，否则这种模式不会奏效。
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) 2024年6月25日
Why It's Important: Tesla is going through a soft patch amid the slowdown in EV demand, forcing it to look for other avenues to shore up revenue. Long term, Musk wants Tesla to evolve as an "AI & Robotics" company. In the near- to mid-term, the company's hopes mainly hinge on robotaxis and potentially a low-end EV.
为什么重要：特斯拉在电动汽车需求放缓的情况下正经历一段软弱期，迫使其寻找其他渠道来支撑收入。长期来看，马斯克希望特斯拉发展成为一家“人工智能和机器人”公司。在接下来的中短期内，该公司的希望主要寄托于机器人出租车，以及可能的低端电动汽车。
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, which recently updated its valuation framework for Tesla, sees the company's stock hitting $2,600 by 2029. In the firm's valuation, robotaxis accounted for 63% of Tesla's total revenue, 86% of EBITDA and 88% of enterprise value.
Cathie Wood的Ark基金最近更新了特斯拉的估值框架，预计该公司的股票在2029年将达到2600美元。在该公司的估值中，机器人出租车占特斯拉总收入的63％，EBITDA的86％和企业价值的88％。
As Black remarked, the success of robotaxi adoption hinges mostly on Tesla's FSD graduating from fully supervised to unsupervised.
正如Black所指出的，机器人出租车的成功采用在很大程度上取决于特斯拉的全自动驾驶技术从完全监管到无监管。
Tesla ended Tuesday's session up 2.61% to $187.35, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据，特斯拉在周二的交易中上涨2.61％，至187.35美元。
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