Bond Traders Expect Much Deeper Interest Rate Cuts Than Projected
Bond Traders Expect Much Deeper Interest Rate Cuts Than Projected
Bond traders predict that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts will go well beyond what the agency has forecast for the next nine months.
债券交易员预测美联储的利率削减将远远超出机构预测的未来九个月的范围。
Traders in the U.S. rates options market expect a much higher 3 percentage points worth of cuts by March. This dwarfs the Fed's recent projections of just 25 basis points of reductions by the end of 2024 and a total 125-basis-point cut by the end of next year, Bloomberg reported.
美国利率期权市场的交易员预计，到3月份将会降低3个百分点的基准点。这远远超过美联储最近的预测，即到2024年底仅降低25个基点，到明年底总共削减125基点，彭博社报道。
Options-market activity related to the secured overnight financing rate over the past three sessions show a significant upside if the Fed reduced its key rate by 300 basis points to 2.25% by next year's first quarter.
过去三个交易日与隔夜担保融资利率有关的期权市场活动显示，如果美联储在明年第一季度将其主要利率降低300个基点至2.25％，则将出现相当大的上行空间。
Also Read: Bank Stocks Trend Upward As Fed Shares Possible Changes To Bank-Capital Overhaul
阅读：随着美联储分享银行资本重组的可能性，银行股走高
This scenario would allow traders to hedge other investments, but it is an unlikely outcome unless the U.S. economy plummets into recession.
这种情况将允许交易员对其他投资进行套期保值，但除非美国经济陷入衰退，否则这是不太可能发生的结果。
Investors have been keeping a close eye on economic data and remarks by Fed officials for any clues on the timing of eventual Fed easing while hedging against extreme rate cuts and other tail-risk outcomes.
投资者一直密切关注经济数据和美联储官员的言论，以获取有关最终美联储宽松的时机的线索，同时对极端利率削减和其他尾部风险结果进行保值。
Price Action: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG) slipped 0.36% by early-afternoon trading on Wednesday, while Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:BND) declined 0.40%. Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) slid 0.43%.
价格行动：iShares核心美国综合债券ETF（纽交所：AGG）周三早盘交易下跌0.36％，而Vanguard总债券市场ETF（纳斯达克：BND）下跌0.40％，Vanguard总国际债券ETF（BNDX）跌0.43％。
Now Read: Homebuyers Get Mixed News From Freddie Mac And The Federal Reserve
现在阅读：房屋买家从房地美和联邦储备委员会获得了褒贬不一的消息
Image: Shutterstock
图片：shutterstock