Bank Stress Tests 'Much Bigger Surprise Than Expected,' Will Delay Future Investment Plans: JPMorgan
Bank Stress Tests 'Much Bigger Surprise Than Expected,' Will Delay Future Investment Plans: JPMorgan
A JPMorgan analyst has reacted to the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results for U.S. banks, which assess their resilience by estimating losses, revenues, expenses, and capital levels under various economic scenarios. The results were announced on Wednesday.
摩根大通的分析师对美国银行进行了年度压力测试结果的反应，这些测试通过估计在各种经济情景下的损失、收入、支出和资本水平来评估它们的抗压能力。这些结果是在周三公布的。
Key Insights: Analyst Vivek Juneja recapped the stress test for large-cap banks, with the results being a "much bigger surprise than expected."
关键见解：分析师Vivek Juneja回顾了大型银行的压力测试，结果比预期的更让人惊讶。
The tests returned a substantial increase in stress capital buffers (SCB) at the majority of large-cap banks, leading to a corresponding increase in capital requirements.
测试结果显示，大多数大型银行的压力资本缓冲区(SCB)有了显著增长，导致相应的资本要求也增加了。
"We expect this sharp increase in capital requirements may delay or reduce long term capital return plans. All our banks comfortably exceed their minimum requirements and should benefit from further accretion of OCI losses. However, the money center banks in our universe will now have lower cushion of 1.2-1.4% over minimum requirement in CET1 [Common Equity Tier 1] ratio, with one broker dealer at a much thinner 70bp cushion," the analyst said.
分析师称：“我们预计这种资本要求的大幅增加可能会延迟或减少长期的资本回报计划。我们所有的银行都舒适地超过了其最低要求，并应从进一步吸引敞口偏差(OCI)损失中受益。然而，我们所覆盖的钱中心银行现在在公共股本一级(Core Equity Tier 1，CET1)比率的最低要求上只有1.2-1.4%的低垫子，一个券商在70基点的低垫子。”
Winners and Losers: Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) fared comparatively well, according to Juneja. SCB is likely to decline by 20bp. The Fed's test skewed toward a harsher U.S. recession, which benefitted banks such as Citi which depend on foreign revenues.
优胜者和输家：根据Juneja的说法，花旗银行表现相对良好。SCB可能会下降20bp。美联储的测试偏向更严重的美国经济衰退，这使得那些依赖海外收入的银行，如花旗银行等，从中受益。
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) got the shorter end of the stick. Both had SCBs raised by 90bp each (using consensus dividends, Goldman would have a 100bp raise).
高盛和富国银行则处于劣势。两者的SCB分别上升了90bp (利用共识派息，高盛将有100bp的涨幅)。
All banks discussed by the analyst are "well above" capital ratios, but several large names had narrow cushions. Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) will have the narrowest cushion of 120bp on its CET1 ratio, per Juneja. Citi and Wells Fargo will have a 140bp each.
分析师提到的所有银行的资本比率都“远高于”要求，但是有几个大型银行的低垫子很窄。据Juneja透露，美国银行的公共股本一级比率的低垫子只有120bp。花旗银行和富国银行各为140bp。
USB Downgrade: The analyst downgraded U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) from Overweight to Neutral with a price target of $43.50 following the stress test.
降级：该分析师将美国合众银行从Overweight调降至中立，目标价为43.50美元，此前该银行参加了压力测试。
"The sharp increase in capital requirements adds another headwind and would delay capital return plans – we do not see a catalyst medium term. US Bancorp is one of our only banks that has indicated no plans for share buybacks."
该分析师表示：“资本要求的大幅增加增加了另一个压力，将推迟资本回报计划——我们认为中期内不会出现催化剂。美国合众银行是我们唯一一家没有宣布股票回购计划的银行。”
The Market Reacts: Goldman Sachs fell 2.22% to $445.96 on Thursday.
据报道，高盛周四下跌2.22%，至445.96美元。
Shares of bank exchange-traded-funds fell following the results. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) was down 0.12% on the day.
银行交易所交易基金的股份出现下跌趋势，金融股票选择性指数(ETF)的今日收盘价为24.15美元，下跌了0.12%。
Comparatively, regional banks outperformed larger banks. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) closed 1.06% higher on Thursday.
相比之下，区域型银行表现优于大型银行。标普区域银行ETF (NYSE:KRE)周四收盘上涨1.06%。
- Fed's 2024 Stress Test Results Worse Than Expected, Says Goldman Analyst: 'The Market Will View The Results As Disappointing'
- 高盛分析师表示，美联储2024年压力测试结果比预期的还要糟糕。这将被市场视为失望。
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
这张图片是通过Midjourney使用人工智能生成的。