Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ:CRNC) share price has dived 28% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 90% share price decline.

Following the heavy fall in price, Cerence may look like a strong buying opportunity at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x, considering almost half of all companies in the Software industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 4.3x and even P/S higher than 11x aren't out of the ordinary. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

What Does Cerence's Recent Performance Look Like?

Recent revenue growth for Cerence has been in line with the industry. It might be that many expect the mediocre revenue performance to degrade, which has repressed the P/S ratio. Those who are bullish on Cerence will be hoping that this isn't the case.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cerence?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Cerence's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 16% gain to the company's top line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 2.8% drop in revenue in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 5.2% per annum over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 15% growth per annum, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's understandable that Cerence's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Final Word

Shares in Cerence have plummeted and its P/S has followed suit. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Cerence's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Cerence (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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