What we liked:
• Improved durability: Logo retention rate improved 4ppt to 80%, existing customer ARR mix increased to 80% and average module adoption increased from 1.6 to 1.8, all point to a more durable revenue growth in the future. Net dollar retention rate stabilized at 106%.
• ARR growth: CoreHR was up 31%YoY, performance management was up 23%YoY and e-learning was up 68%YoY. Beisen expects e-learning to sustain rapid growth, as it started to sell it as an independent module recently.
• GPM improvements: Beisen's non-GAAP GPM improved by 8.6ppt to 64%, mainly driven by software margin improving to 82% as well as normalization of service revenue margin.
• Bottom line beat: FY24 reported normalized net loss and cash outflow are better than MSe on cost control.
• Outlook: FY25 guidance of 15% revenue growth, slightly better than 13.8% in FY24, and operating cash flow turnaround. Beisen targets 25% market share in China HCM SaaS market in three year vs ~15% in 2023.
What we are monitoring:
• Subdued recruitment demand: The result implied that recruitment related ARR growth remained a drag on the firm's blended ARR against the current macro backdrop, although recruitment is becoming smaller in its ARR pie. Based on our updated forecast, Beisen is currently trading at 3.5x FY25e P/S (slightly below peer Kingdee of 3.8x), but only 1.7x FY25 EV/sales (vs. Kingdee of 3.3x), suggesting no credit to Beisen's Rmb1.72bn net cash. We believe the cash flow turnaround in FY25 will bring more confidence to the market. Stay OW.
我们喜欢什么：
• 提高耐久性：徽标保留率提高了4个百分点至80％，现有客户的ARR组合增加到80％，平均模块采用率从1.6增加到1.8，所有这些都表明未来收入增长将更加持久。净美元留存率稳定在106％。
• ARR增长：CoreHR同比增长31％，绩效管理同比增长23％，电子学习同比增长68％。Beisen预计电子学习将保持快速增长，因为它最近开始将其作为独立模块出售。
• GPM改善：北森的非公认会计准则GPM增长了8.6个百分点至64％，这主要是由于软件利润率提高至82％以及服务收入利润率的正常化。
• 底线：24财年报告的正常净亏损和现金流出在成本控制方面优于MSe。
• 展望：25财年预期收入增长15％，略好于24财年的13.8％，运营现金流将迎来转机。北森的目标是在三年内在中国HCM SaaS市场占有25％的市场份额，而2023年约为15％。
我们关注什么：
• 招聘需求疲软：结果表明，尽管招聘人数在当前的宏观背景下，与招聘相关的ARR增长仍然拖累了公司的混合ARR，但招聘相关的ARR增长仍然拖累了该公司的混合ARR。根据我们最新的预测，北森目前的交易价格为25财年的3.5倍（略低于同行金蝶的3.8倍），但仅为25财年电动汽车/销售额的1.7倍（金蝶为3.3倍），这表明北森17.2亿元人民币的净现金不归功于北森的人民币17.2亿元净现金。我们认为，25财年的现金流转将为市场带来更大的信心。保持低水平。
