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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519)?

Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519)?

下滑的股票和扎实的基本面:市场对贵州茅台股份有限公司(SHSE:600519)错了吗?
Simply Wall St ·  06/28 18:27

It is hard to get excited after looking at Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) recent performance, when its stock has declined 14% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Kweichow Moutai's ROE today.

贵州茅台(SHSE:600519)最近表现不佳,股价在过去三个月中下跌了14%,很难让人感到兴奋。但是,股价通常受到公司长期财务表现的驱动,在这种情况下看起来非常有前途。特别是,我们今天将关注贵州茅台的roe。

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

净资产收益率(ROE)是衡量公司增值和管理投资者资金有效性的测试。换句话说,它是一种盈利能力比率,用于衡量公司股东提供的资金回报率。

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

如何计算股东权益报酬率?

The formula for ROE is:

roe的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

净资产收益率 = 净利润(从持续经营中获得)÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Kweichow Moutai is:

因此,根据上述公式,贵州茅台的ROE为:

33% = CN¥81b ÷ CN¥249b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

33%= CN¥81b ÷ CN¥249b(基于截至2024年3月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.33 in profit.

“回报”是指公司过去一年的收益。这意味着对于每个CN¥1的股东权益,公司产生了CN¥0.33的利润。

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

既然我们已经确定ROE是一种有效的利润生成标准,用于评估公司未来的盈利能力,我们现在需要评估公司“保留”为未来增长而重新投资的利润多少,这使我们对公司的增长潜力有了一个了解。一般而言,在其他条件相等的情况下,ROE和利润留存高的公司,增长率比没有这些属性的公司要高。

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

到目前为止,我们已经了解到roe衡量公司利润产生的效率。根据公司选择再投资或“保留”的利润比例,我们能够评估公司未来产生利润的能力。其他条件相同的情况下,roe和利润保留率均较高的公司通常比没有这些特征的公司成长速度更快。

Kweichow Moutai's Earnings Growth And 33% ROE

贵州茅台的盈利增长和33%的roe

First thing first, we like that Kweichow Moutai has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 16% the company's ROE is quite impressive. Probably as a result of this, Kweichow Moutai was able to see a decent net income growth of 14% over the last five years.

首先,我们喜欢贵州茅台的出色roe。其次,即使与16%的行业平均水平相比,该公司的roe也非常出色。可能由于此原因,贵州茅台在过去五年中的净收入增长达14%。

As a next step, we compared Kweichow Moutai's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 15% in the same period.

作为下一步,我们将贵州茅台的净收入增长与行业进行比较,发现该公司在同一时期与行业平均增长率15%具有类似的增长数据。

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:600519 Past Earnings Growth June 28th 2024
SHSE:600519过去盈利增长情况

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is 600519 worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether 600519 is currently mispriced by the market.

盈利增长是考虑股票估值时需要考虑的重要指标。投资者了解市场是否已经定价公司预期的盈利增长(或下降)非常重要。通过这样做,他们将了解股票是进入清晰蓝色水域还是等待泥泞水域的情况。600519今天价值多少?我们免费研究报告的内在价值信息图表可帮助可视化600519的市场定价是否合理。

Is Kweichow Moutai Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

贵州茅台是否有效利用其利润?

Kweichow Moutai has a three-year median payout ratio of 49%, which implies that it retains the remaining 51% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

贵州茅台三年的中位数派息比率为49%,这意味着它保留了其利润的其余51%。这表明其红利是有余地的,并且考虑到公司看到的良好增长,看起来管理层正在有效地重新投资其收益。

Besides, Kweichow Moutai has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 52%. As a result, Kweichow Moutai's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 33% for future ROE.

此外,贵州茅台至少十年或更长时间一直在支付红利。这表明公司致力于与股东分享利润。我们最新的分析师数据显示,公司未来三年的红利支付比率预计约为52%。因此,我们从33%的未来roe分析师预测推断出,贵州茅台的roe预计不会发生太大变化。

Summary

总的来说,我们对伟明环保的表现非常满意。具体而言,我们喜欢公司以高回报率再投资了其利润的很大一部分。当然,这导致公司的收益大幅增长。但是,最新的行业分析师预测表明,该公司的收益预计将加速增长。

Overall, we are quite pleased with Kweichow Moutai's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

总体而言,我们对贵州茅台的表现相当满意。具体而言,我们喜欢公司以高回报率重新投资其利润的巨大股份,这当然导致了公司收益的大幅增长。最新的行业分析师预测显示,该公司预计将保持其当前的增长率。这些分析师的预期是基于对行业的广泛预期还是基于公司的基本面分析?点击此处进入我们的分析师预测页面。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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