The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Regina Miracle International (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2199), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at HK$7.0b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 54%, coming in at just HK$0.12 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Regina Miracle International (Holdings)'s three analysts is for revenues of HK$8.04b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 174% to HK$0.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$8.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.32 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 12% to HK$3.00following these changes. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Regina Miracle International (Holdings) at HK$3.10 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$2.90. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Regina Miracle International (Holdings) is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Regina Miracle International (Holdings)'s past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Regina Miracle International (Holdings)'s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Regina Miracle International (Holdings) to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded Regina Miracle International (Holdings)'s revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Regina Miracle International (Holdings). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Regina Miracle International (Holdings) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Regina Miracle International (Holdings) (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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