Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 28% If They Invested Three Years Ago
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 28% If They Invested Three Years Ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) shareholders, since the share price is down 32% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 18%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 15% in the last 90 days.
为了证明选择个股的努力是值得的,努力打败市场指数基金的回报是值得的。但如果您尝试进行个股选择,则有可能面临低于市场回报的风险。不幸的是,在过去的三年中,长期持有星巴克公司(NASDAQ:SBUX)股票的股东人数不断减少,因为股票价格跌了32%,远低于市场回报率约18%。股东最近的日子更为艰难,股票价格在过去的90天内下跌了15%。
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
值得评估公司的经济状况是否与这些不尽如人意的股东回报同时发展并步调一致,或者两者之间是否存在差异。因此,让我们来看看。
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话:短期内市场是一个投票机,但长期来看它是一个称重机。评估公司周边环境的情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Starbucks actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 63% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
不幸的是,在股票价格下跌的三年中,星巴克实际上每年的每股收益(EPS)有所提高,提高了63%。鉴于股票价格的反应,人们可能会怀疑在此期间EPS是否不是业务表现的良好指南(可能是由于一次性损失或收益),或者过去的增长预期可能是不合理的。
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
由于EPS的变化似乎与股价的变化不相关,因此值得查看其他指标。
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 12% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Starbucks further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
我们注意到,在三年内,营业收入实际上以12%的年度增长率增长,因此这似乎不是出售股票的原因。可能值得进一步调查星巴克公司;虽然我们可能在这个分析中有所遗漏,但也可能存在机会。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240629/0-67bac3d456372a374f6aa16256b17bbf-0-d1402f7a7b7d74f3e57abb9812b65168.png/big)
Starbucks is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
星巴克是一只广受关注的知名股票,有很多分析师进行了覆盖,这表明有一定的未来增长可见性。因此,我们建议查看这份免费报告,展示共识预测。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Starbucks, it has a TSR of -28% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股票价格回报外,投资者还应考虑股东总回报(TSR)。股票价格回报只反映了股票价格的变化,TSR还包括股息的价值(假设它们进行了再投资)以及任何打折募资或剥离的效益。从某种意义上说,TSR提供了更全面的股票回报图片。在星巴克的例子中,最近3年TSR为-28%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。想必股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While the broader market gained around 23% in the last year, Starbucks shareholders lost 19% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Starbucks (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
尽管最近一年市场总体上涨约23%,但星巴克的股东却亏损了19%(包括股息在内)。然而,要记住,即使最好的股票也有时会在十二个月的时间内表现低于市场。可悔的是,去年的表现结束了糟糕的时期,股东在过去五年中面临了年平均总损失0.3%。我们认识到Baron Rothschild曾说过投资者应该“在街上有血时买进”,但我们警告投资者首先要确定他们正在购买高质量的企业。虽然考虑到市场条件对股票价格的不同影响是值得考虑的,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,永远存在的投资风险。我们已检测到星巴克存在两个警示信号(至少有一个有点令人担忧),了解这些警示信号应成为您的投资过程的一部分。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
请注意,本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。