Avangrid (NYSE:AGR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Avangrid (NYSE:AGR) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Avangrid, Inc. (NYSE:AGR) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍华德·马克斯说得好:“与其担心股价波动,我所担心的风险是永久性损失……我认识的每个实际投资者都很担心。” 当您评估一家公司的风险时,在考虑它的资产负债表时是很自然的,因为债务往往涉及到企业破产。我们可以看到,Avangrid, Inc. (NYSE:AGR)在业务中确实使用了债务。但更重要的问题是,这些债务创造了多少风险?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般情况下,当公司无法轻易偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过增资还是通过自有现金流实现。最终,如果公司无法履行法律上的偿还债务义务,股东可能会空手而归。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,公司以低价募集新的股本资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的权益。然而,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要获得高回报的增长资本的企业的极好工具。在我们评估债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Avangrid's Net Debt?
Avangrid的净负债是什么?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Avangrid had US$13.0b of debt, up from US$9.95b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
正如您下面所看到的,在2024年3月底,Avangrid的债务总额为130亿美元,高于一年前的99.5亿美元。点击图片可以查看更多详细信息。由于其现金几乎没有,因此其净债务大约相同。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240629/0-52c21c46b7c7a4e38bdcd94d8ef25dee-0-712762a42f7bfbfce439ffc9e997071f.png/big)
A Look At Avangrid's Liabilities
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到Avangrid有62.1亿美元的负债,到期时间在12个月内,以及180亿美元的负债,在12个月后到期。在此同时,该公司有1.52亿美元的应收账款和1.52亿美元在12个月内到期的货币,以抵销其负债总额(约22.4亿美元)与其现金和短期应收账款的组合。这种赤字像一个巨人一样高耸在这家规模为137亿美元的公司之上。因此,我们绝对认为股东需要密切关注这个问题。毕竟,如果今天Avangrid需要向债权人偿还债务,那么很可能需要进行大规模的再融资。
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Avangrid had liabilities of US$6.21b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$18.0b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$152.0m in cash and US$1.65b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$22.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
这个赤字给这家规模为13.7亿美元的公司,打了个暗影,就像一个高耸在凡人之上的巨像。因此,我们绝对认为股东需要密切关注这个问题。毕竟,如果今天Avangrid需要向债权人偿还债务,那么很可能需要进行大规模的再融资。
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$13.7b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Avangrid would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
2.5倍的信息利润覆盖率和5.6倍的净负债与息税前利润比率的高比率,像是一拳击打我们对Avangrid的信心。这里的债务负担相当沉重。好消息是,Avangrid在过去12个月中平稳增长了44%的息税前利润。像人类的仁慈之乳一样,这种增长增加了企业的韧性,使企业更能够管理债务。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是开始的位置。但是,最终企业未来的盈利能力将决定Avangrid是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您关注未来,可以查看此免费报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们使用两个主要的比率来衡量债务水平与收益的关系。一个是净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA),另一个是它的利息费用与利息和税前利润(EBIT)相比的倍数(或其利息覆盖率)。这样,我们考虑了债务的绝对量以及所支付的利率。
Weak interest cover of 2.5 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.6 hit our confidence in Avangrid like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. The good news is that Avangrid grew its EBIT a smooth 44% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Avangrid can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为公司无法用纸上利润偿还债务,它需要冰冷的现金。因此,逻辑的下一步是查看实际自由现金流所匹配的EBIT比例。在过去三年中,Avangrid持续亏损。虽然这可能是为了增长而支出的结果,但它确实使债务风险更加严重。坦率地说,无论是Avangrid的EBIT转换为自由现金流,还是它掌握其总负债的记录,都使我们对其债务水平感到非常不安。但至少它在增长其EBIT方面表现相当不错,这是令人鼓舞的。我们还应该注意到,像Avangrid这样的电力公用事业公司通常可以在不产生问题的情况下使用债务。总的来说,我们认为Avangrid的资产负债表对企业确实构成真正的风险。出于这个原因,我们对该股持谨慎态度,并认为股东应密切关注其流动性。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上学到了大部分债务情况。但最终,每个公司都可能存在除资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,Avangrid在我们的投资分析中显示出了2个警告信号,其中之一令人担忧。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Avangrid burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为公司无法用纸上利润偿还债务,它需要冰冷的现金。因此,逻辑的下一步是查看实际自由现金流所匹配的EBIT比例。在过去三年中,Avangrid烧掉了大量现金。虽然这可能是由于为增长支出的结果,但它确实使债务风险更加严重。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both Avangrid's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Avangrid commonly do use debt without problems. Overall, it seems to us that Avangrid's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Avangrid is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
坦白地说,Avangrid的EBIT转换为自由现金流和掌握其总负债的记录都使我们对其债务水平感到非常不安。但至少它在增长其EBIT方面表现相当不错,这是令人鼓舞的。我们还应该注意到,像Avangrid这样的电力公用事业公司通常可以在不产生问题的情况下使用债务。总的来说,我们认为Avangrid的资产负债表对企业确实构成真正的风险。出于这个原因,我们对该股持谨慎态度,并认为股东应密切关注其流动性。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上学到了大部分债务情况。但最终,每个公司都可能存在除资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,Avangrid在我们的投资分析中显示出了2个警告信号,其中之一令人担忧。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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