Tesla Stares At Another Sales Decline In Q2: Did China Save The Day For The EV Maker?
Tesla Stares At Another Sales Decline In Q2: Did China Save The Day For The EV Maker?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ shares rose in premarket trading on Monday as it preps to release the all-important second-quarter deliveries.
$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$特斯拉股票在周一盘前交易中上涨，因为它准备发布重要的第二季度交付报告。
The Elon Musk-led company is widely expected to provide an update on its quarterly sales ahead of the market open on Tuesday. Consensus estimate shared by fund manager Gary Black puts deliveries at 440,000 units for the second quarter. If the number proves accurate, Tesla is all set to report its second straight quarter of year-over-year sales decline. A year ago, the company produced 479,700 cars and sold 466,140 units.
这家由埃隆·马斯克领导的公司被广泛预计在周二开盘前公布季度销售情况。基金经理加里·布莱克分享的共识预测将第二季度的交付量定为44万辆。如果这个数字被证实准确，特斯拉将全力报告其第二个连续的年度销售下降季度。一年前，该公司生产了479,700辆汽车并销售了466,140辆。
The whisper number — an unofficial number floating around on the Street — is far less at 420,000 (a 10% drop), Black said.
布莱克表示，流传在街头的预测数字要少得多，为42万辆（下降10%）。
"There's a decent chance of an upside surprise on Tues, especially if we get another 17.5K weekly registrations out of China," he said in a post on Friday. His optimism is also premised on the last two days of the quarter being over the weekend, which can pull in more deliveries.
他在上周五的发帖中说：“周二有很大的机会出现惊喜，特别是如果我们从中国再获得另外17,500个每周注册数字。”他的乐观也是基于季度的最后两天是周末，这可能会增加交付量。
In the first quarter, Tesla's deliveries fell 8.5% year-over-year and over 20% sequentially to 386,810 units.
在第一季度，特斯拉的交付量同比下降8.5%，环比下降超过20%，为386,810辆。
A few sell-side analysts took down their estimates for Tesla over the past two weeks. The revisions are as follows:
过去两周，一些卖方分析师下调了对特斯拉的估值。以下是修订情况：
RBC Capital Market's Tom Narayan reduced his estimate from 533,000 units to 410,000 units.
Barclays' Dan Levy brought down his estimate from 444,000 units to 415,000 units.
RBC资本市场的汤姆·纳拉扬将估值从533,000辆降至410,000辆。
巴克莱银行的丹·莱维将估值从444,000辆降至415,000辆。
Tesla typically shares a company-compiled consensus ahead of the official announcement.
特斯拉通常会在正式公告前分享公司编制的共识。
China is a key market for Tesla both from the production and consumption perspectives. The electric-vehicle maker's China sales performance for the first two months of the quarter are as follows:
中国对于特斯拉来说既是生产市场，也是消费市场。这家电动汽车制造商在季度的前两个月在中国的销售情况如下：
Made-in-China sales |
Domestic Sales |
Exports |
|
April |
62,167 |
31,421 |
30,746 |
May |
72,573 |
55,215 |
17,358 |
中国制造的销量 |
当地销量 |
出口销量 |
|
四月 |
62,167 |
31,421 |
30,746 |
五月 |
72,573 |
55,215 |
17,358 |
Adding up the weekly insurance registrations data for June, Tesla sold about 41,200 cars in China until June 23.
综合6月份保险注册数据，截至6月23日，特斯拉在中国销售了约41,200辆汽车。
It also remains to be seen whether the company breaks out the Cybertruck numbers.
还有待观察该公司是否会公布Cybertruck的销售数字。
Future Perfect: Notwithstanding the near-term concerns, bullish analyst, including Wedbush's Daniel Ives, are hopeful of the company turning things around. The analyst said in a recent note that China sales may have seen a "mini-rebound" in the second quarter, helping it to report closer to the consensus estimate.
未来之路：尽管存在短期担忧，包括Wedbush的分析师Daniel Ives在内的看好分析师仍然希望公司能够扭转局面。该分析师在最近的一封研究报告中表示，中国的销售额在第二季度可能已经出现了“小反弹”，有助于将其报告调至更接近共识预期。
The Street may have already discounted a soft second-quarter number and its core focus will be on the second-half unit recovery, price stabilization, China growth and the upcoming Aug. 8 Robotaxi Day, he said.
华尔街可能已经预计到了软弱的二季度业绩，其核心焦点将在下半年的产量恢复、价格稳定、中国增长和即将到来的8月8日的机器人出租车发布会上。他说。
Analysts have come to recognize the reality that Tesla is not merely an EV company. "We continue to believe that Tesla is more of an AI and robotics play than a traditional car company," Ives said.
分析师已经认识到特斯拉不仅仅是一家电动汽车公司。 Ives称：“我们仍然相信特斯拉更像是一家人工智能和机器人公司，而不是一家传统汽车公司。”
Ives has an Outperform rating and $275 price target for Tesla shares.
Ives为特斯拉股票设定了跑赢大盘的评级和275美元的价格目标。