Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are trading higher after Needham analyst Laura Martin maintained a Buy rating and a $220 price target. The stock price gained after the re-rating.
Martin summarized recent channel checks related to Apple. Insights from several ex-employees of Apple are summarized first, followed by insights from a key competitor.
The most important valuation-related takeaways from Martin's conversations included the fact that the smartphone replacement cycle is now closer to 36-40 months, up from about 24-30 months pre-COVID.
Some noted that Apple would raise prices on high-end smartphones and use that excess pricing to subsidize lower-cost iPhones to attract new consumers into the Apple ecosystem.
This is because high-end smartphone customers are typically less price-sensitive, and Apple needs to reach a new base of consumers to grow its installed base.
The smartphone market in the U.S. is saturated, and competition is ruthless, Martin flagged.
The global smartphone market saw a 12% decline in 2023, with Germany reporting a 17% decline, the U.K. a 14% decline, and the U.S. market an 11-12% decline.
Emerging markets like India are still reporting growth, owing to lower smartphone penetration.
The smartphone renewal cycle has extended from 24-26 months to 36 months due to pressure on consumer spending post-COVID smartphone market saturation.
This trend is especially evident in the U.S., where everyone owns at least one smartphone, the analyst picked up from the conversation.
Martin noted that the percentage of devices sold through Apple stores and Apple.com has increased over the past seven years.
The first-party channel has become more important, especially for Mac and iPad sales. Outside its owned stores, Apple's consumer retail channel strategy in the U.S. has become increasingly concentrated in a handful of partners.
Apple has dramatically lowered its dependence on other channels.
Martin noted that by reducing the number of retail channels it uses, APPL can use this "rarity" value and market power to dictate better terms with the distribution channels it keeps.
Martin projected fiscal 2024 revenue and EPS of $387.10 billion and $6.62.
Price Action: AAPL shares traded higher by 2.99% at $216.90 at the last check Monday.
Photo courtesy of Apple
Needham分析师Laura Martin维持买入评级和220美元的价格目标后,苹果公司(纳斯达克:AAPL)股价上涨。重新评级后,股价上涨。
Martin总结了与苹果有关的最近的渠道检查。首先概括了几位前苹果员工的见解,随后是一位关键竞争对手的见解。
Martin从对话中得出的与估值相关的最重要的结论包括,智能手机更换周期现在接近36-40个月,比COVID前的24-30个月长。
一些人指出,苹果将在高端智能手机上涨价,并利用这种过剩的价格来补贴低成本的iPhone,以吸引新的消费者进入苹果生态系统。这是因为高端智能手机的消费者通常不太注重价格,而苹果需要吸引新的消费者群体来增加其安装基数。
这是因为高端智能手机的消费者通常不太注重价格,而苹果需要吸引新的消费者群体来增加其生态系统安装基数。
马丁指出,美国的智能手机市场已经饱和,竞争异常激烈。
全球智能手机市场在2023年下降了12%,德国报告下降了17% ,英国下降了14%,美国市场下降了11-12%。
由于智能手机渗透率较低,印度等新兴市场仍在报告增长。
由于COVID疫情后智能手机市场的饱和度,智能手机换新周期已从24-26个月延长到36个月。
分析师从谈话中了解到,这种趋势在美国特别明显,那里的每个人都拥有至少一部智能手机。
马丁指出,在过去的七年中,通过Apple店和Apple.com销售的设备的比例已经增加。一手渠道变得越来越重要,特别是对于Mac和iPad的销售。在其拥有的商店之外,苹果在美国的消费者零售渠道策略变得越来越集中在少数合作伙伴中。
Apple大幅降低了对其他渠道的依赖。
马丁指出,通过减少它使用的零售渠道的数量,苹果可以利用这种“稀缺”价值和市场影响力来与它保持的分销渠道协商更好的条款。
Martin预计2024财年的营业收入为3871亿美元,每股收益为6.62美元。
AAPL股票在分析师发布此消息后,上涨2.99%,上涨了2.99美元,报收216.90美元。
价格行情:苹果股票周一最新交易价为216.90美元,上涨2.99%。
图片提供:苹果