The Market Generally Performs Better In Early July Than Any Other Part Of The Year
The Market Generally Performs Better In Early July Than Any Other Part Of The Year
Americans spend the first half of July enjoying the July 4th holiday, vacations and spending time with family. While the dog days of July might not be amiable to those seeking cooler temperatures, they are historically kind to the stock market.
美国人在7月的前半段享受七月四日假期、度假和与家人共度时光。虽然7月的热浪可能不适合那些寻求更凉爽气温的人，但它们在历史上对股市非常友好。
The Data: A post on X relayed data from Bank of America.
数据：关于X的一篇帖子转发了美国银行的数据。
The first 10 trading days of July have seasonally been the strongest period for the S&P 500 since 1928.
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) June 30, 2024
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on average in the first 10 trading days of July, rising 69% of the time. pic.twitter.com/miQYAsj9rc
自1928年以来，7月的前10个交易日季节性地成为标普500指数最强劲的时期。
—Mike Zaccardi，CFA，CMT（@MikeZaccardi）2024年6月30日
在七月的前十个交易日中，标普500指数平均上涨了1.5％，有69％的时间上涨。pic.twitter.com/miQYAsj9rc
The S&P 500 has returned 1.5% on average during the first half of July since 1928. If that 1.5% was sustained over the entire year, the market would return 36% annually.
自1928年以来，7月的前半段标普500指数平均回报率为1.5%。如果这1.5%的回报率在整个年度内持续下去，市场将实现年回报率36%。
Additionally, the S&P 500 has historically risen 69% of the time during this period.
此期间标普500指数的历史平均升幅为69%。
The second-most successful period for the S&P 500 is the second half of December.
标普500指数的第二成功板块是12月的后半段。
Past Five Years: The market has risen in the first half of July in each of the past five years, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
过去五年：根据雅虎财经的数据，过去五年中7月的前半段市场都有上涨。
- In 2019, the S&P 500 had a 1.37% return.
- In 2020, the S&P 500 saw a 3.97% appreciation.
- In 2021, the S&P 500 returned 1.37%.
- In 2022, the S&P 500 saw a 2.28% gain.
- In 2023, the S&P 500 rose 1.79%.
- 2019年，标普500指数上涨了1.37%。
- 2020年，标普500指数上涨了3.97%。
- 2021年，标普500指数上涨了1.37%。
- 2022年，标普500指数上涨了2.28%。
- 2023年，标普500指数上涨了1.79%。
On average, the S&P returned 2.15% in the first 10 trading days of July.
在7月的前10个交易日中，标普500指数的平均回报率为2.15%。
Why it Matters: The U.S. market has recently rallied toward all-time highs, aided by gains from large technology stocks. While many remain bullish on the market's future performance, others have cited "warning flags" that point to a potential market pullback.
重要性：伴随着科技板块的大涨，美国市场近期已经上涨至创纪录的高位。虽然许多人看好市场未来的表现，但其他人也指出了指向潜在市场回调的“警告标志”。
Also Read:
还阅读：
- Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft Race Toward $4T Market Cap: Analyst Expects AI-Driven Tech Rally To Deliver 15% Returns Over Next 6 Months
- 英伟达、苹果、微软竞相赛向4万亿市值：分析师预计人工智能驱动科技行业将在未来6个月内带来15%的回报。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock