Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga), in its Oil & Gas sector update on July 2, 2024 (Tuesday), affirmed an OVERWEIGHT rating, citing favourable conditions in mid-stream and upstream opportunities.
The bank maintained Brent crude price forecasts at USD84/bbl for CY24 and USD79/bbl for CY25, aligning closely with Bloomberg's median projections. Expectations point to a stabilising Brent price trajectory, with a slight weakening in 3QCY24 and a strengthening in 4QCY24, driven by seasonal impacts on Western economies.
Kenanga anticipates a phased discontinuation of OPEC+ production cuts by late CY24, followed by increased production in CY25, bolstering the global crude oil market balance. Notably, non-OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are set to drive production growth in 2024 amid ample spare capacity from OPEC.
Petronas ramps up domestic capex. Petronas allocated RM5.5b for domestic projects in 1QCY24, marking a 20% YoY increase and reflecting 52% of its total capex. This focus on upstream investments and cleaner energy solutions is expected to benefit Malaysian upstream service providers significantly.
Local upstream services flourish. Malaysian companies servicing upstream sectors report heightened demand, particularly in vessel charter rates for accommodation work boats (AWB) and anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels. Short-term AWB rates soared to RM150,000/day, driven by robust brownfield maintenance activities.
OSV market dynamics. Despite global OSV supply constraints, local markets remain under-supplied relative to demand from Petronas and other oil majors. The sector anticipates steady rates due to limited new build activity among Malaysian players.
Tank terminals poised for growth. Kenanga forecasts strong demand for tank terminal storage, driven by oil futures contango and increased geopolitical risks. Companies like DIALOG are well-positioned to benefit, particularly with ongoing expansions in Pengerang, Johor.
Investment outlook. Kenanga favours DIALOG (OP; TP: RM3.18), PETDAG (OP; TP: RM23.70), and VELESTO (OP; TP: RM0.34) as top sector picks, given their strategic positioning amidst anticipated sectoral growth.
Kenanga's bullish outlook on Malaysia's Oil & Gas sector underscores potential opportunities in upstream services, midstream expansions, and strategic investments in tank terminal infrastructure.
Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga)在2024年7月2日(周二)更新的石油与天然气行业报告中确认了增持评级，理由是中游和上游机会条件有利。
该银行将布伦特原油价格预测维持在24财年84美元/桶和25财年79美元/桶，与彭博社的中位数预测非常吻合。预期布伦特原油价格走势将趋于稳定，在对西方经济体的季节性影响的推动下，3QCY24 略有疲软，4QCY24 走强。
Kenanga预计，欧佩克+将在24财年末分阶段停止减产，随后在25财年增加产量，从而巩固全球原油市场平衡。值得注意的是，在欧佩克充足的剩余产能下，美国、加拿大、巴西和圭亚那等非欧佩克+国家将在2024年推动产量增长。
国油增加了国内资本支出。国油在 1QCY24 中为国内项目拨款55亿令吉，同比增长20％，占其总资本支出的52％。这种对上游投资和清洁能源解决方案的关注预计将使马来西亚的上游服务提供商受益匪浅。
本地上游服务蓬勃发展。为上游行业提供服务的马来西亚公司报告说，需求增加，特别是在住宿工作船（AWB）和锚处理拖船供应（AHTS）的租船费率方面。在稳健的棕地维护活动的推动下，短期空运单利率飙升至每天15万令吉。
OSV 市场动态。尽管全球OSV供应受到限制，但相对于国油和其他石油巨头的需求，当地市场仍然供应不足。由于马来西亚参与者的新建活动有限，该行业预计利率将保持稳定。
储罐码头有望增长。Kenanga预测，在石油期货交易和地缘政治风险增加的推动下，对储罐码头储存的需求将强劲。像DIALOG这样的公司完全有能力从中受益，尤其是在柔佛州彭格朗的持续扩张中。
投资展望。鉴于DIALOG（OP；TP：3.18令吉）、PETDAG（OP：23.70令吉）和VELESTO（OP；TP：0.34令吉）在预期的行业增长中的战略定位，Kenanga青睐这些行业的首选。
Kenanga对马来西亚石油和天然气行业的看涨前景凸显了上游服务、中游扩张和储罐码头基础设施战略投资方面的潜在机遇。
