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Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd (SHSE:600839) A Risky Investment?

Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd (SHSE:600839) A Risky Investment?

四川长虹电器股份有限公司(SHSE:600839)是一项冒险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  07/03 18:04

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600839) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

作为投资者,有人认为波动性而不是债务是考虑风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过“波动性远非风险的代名词”。当你考察一个公司时,自然要考虑其资产负债表,因为当企业崩溃时通常涉及到债务。我们可以看到四川长虹电器股份有限公司(SHSE:600839)确实在业务中使用债务。但是债务是不是股东的担忧?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候负债才是一个问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般来说,只有当公司无法轻易偿还债务时,通过筹集资本或使用其自身的现金流进行偿还债务时,债务才真正成为问题。资本主义的一个方面是“创造性破坏”过程,即银行家无情地清算失败的企业。然而,一种更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,公司必须以低价筹集新的股本资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的持股。话虽如此,最常见的情况是企业合理管理其债务,为自己谋利。在考虑公司债务水平时的第一步是考虑其现金和债务的综合情况。

What Is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's Net Debt?

四川长虹电器股份有限公司的净债务是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd had CN¥19.7b of debt, up from CN¥18.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But it also has CN¥25.2b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥5.46b net cash.

正如下图所示,在2024年3月底,四川长虹电器股份有限公司的债务总额为197亿元人民币,而去年同期为185亿元人民币。点击图像查看更多细节。但它还有252亿元人民币的现金来抵消这一点,这意味着它有54.6亿元净现金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600839 Debt to Equity History July 3rd 2024
SHSE:600839股票的债务权益历史记录截至2024年7月3日

A Look At Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's Liabilities

四川长虹电器股份有限公司负债情况分析

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd had liabilities of CN¥65.4b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥5.10b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥25.2b and CN¥20.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥25.2b.

从最新的资产负债表数据中可以看出,四川长虹电器股份有限公司有654亿元的到期负债,并有51亿元的超过12个月的负债。另一方面,它有252亿元和202亿元的应收账款到期在一年内。因此,它的负债超过了其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和252亿元。

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥20.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load, even if it does have very significant liabilities, in total.

鉴于这一逆差实际上高于公司的市值207亿元人民币,我们认为股东们确实应该像父母看着孩子第一次骑自行车时那样密切关注四川长虹电器股份有限公司的债务水平。假设以当前股价筹集资本,将需要进行极度重大的稀释。四川长虹电器股份有限公司拥有净现金,因此,即使它在总体上具有非常重要的负债,只要合理地管理其债务,就不会承担沉重的债务负担。

Also good is that Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd grew its EBIT at 15% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

此外,四川长虹电器股份有限公司过去一年EBIt增长了15%,这也进一步增加了其管理债务的能力。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,对于资产负债表的未来状况,是由四川长虹电器股份有限公司的收益情况所影响的。因此,在考虑债务时,肯定值得看一下收益趋势。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最后,一家公司只能用冷酷的现金而不是会计利润来偿还债务。四川长虹电器股份有限公司可能在资产负债表上具有净现金,但看看企业将其利润(利息和税前利润)转化为自由现金流的情况也很有趣,因为这将影响其管理债务的需求和能力。在过去三年中,四川长虹电器股份有限公司的自由现金流比EBIt还多。这种强劲的现金转换让我们感到非常兴奋,就像Daft Punk音乐会上的观众一样兴奋。

Summing Up

总之

While Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of CN¥5.46b. The cherry on top was that in converted 166% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.4b. So we don't have any problem with Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Sichuan Changhong ElectricLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.

虽然四川长虹电器股份有限公司的负债超过了其流动资产,但其也有54.6亿元净现金。更让人惊喜的是,它将166%的EBIt转换为自由现金流,带来了14亿元。因此,我们并不认为四川长虹电器股份有限公司的债务使用存在问题。当您分析债务时,资产负债表显然是需要关注的领域。然而,并不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,相距甚远。例如,在进行投资之前,我们发现了四川长虹电器股份有限公司的2个警示信号,您应该知道这些信号。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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