Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in Kellanova (NYSE:K) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 17%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 25%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 12% in three years.
购买指数基金很容易匹配整体市场回报。积极投资者的目标是购买大幅跑赢市场的股票，但在此过程中，他们面临着表现不佳的风险。在过去一年中，Kellanova公司(NYSE:K)股价下跌了17%，这很明显低于市场回报率的大约25%。长期股东的损失相对较少，因为股票在过去三年中下跌了12%。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
鉴于此，值得看看该公司的基本面是否一直是长期业绩的驱动因素，或者是否存在一些不一致之处。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的话说，“船只会在世界各地航行，但是持平地球学会会蓬勃发展。在市场上，价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差距……”评估公司周围情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益（EPS）与股价进行比较。
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Kellanova share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 50%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在不幸的12个月中，Kellanova公司的股价下跌，但每股收益(EPS)却提高了50%。过去的增长预期很可能是不合理的。
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
可以说股价似乎没有反映EPS的增长。但我们可能会发现一些不同的指标更好地解释股价的波动。
Vibrant companies don't usually cut their dividends, so the recent reduction might help explain why the Kellanova share price has been weak.
充满活力的企业通常不会裁减股息，所以最近的减少可能有助于解释为什么Kellanova公司的股价表现较弱。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利（随时间变化）（单击以查看准确的数字）。
Kellanova is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Kellanova in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
Kellanova公司是一家知名股票，有很多分析师进行了覆盖，这表明一些对未来增长的可见性。您可以查看这个交互式未来利润预估的图表，了解分析师对Kellanova公司的预测。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢？
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Kellanova the TSR over the last 1 year was -8.1%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股价回报外，投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR是一个回报计算，考虑到现金股息的价值(假设任何收到的股息都被再投资)以及任何折价股本增发和分拆的计算价值。可以说，TSR给出了一个更全面的股票回报图景。我们注意到，对于Kellanova公司，过去1年的TSR为-8.1%，比上述股价回报率要好。公司支付的股息因此提高了股东的回报。总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
Kellanova shareholders are down 8.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kellanova that you should be aware of.
Kellanova的股东今年已经亏损了8.1%(包括股息)，但市场本身上涨了25%。即使好股票的股价有时也会下跌，但我们希望在有实质性的业务指标改善之前不要过于关注。长期投资者不会太失落，因为在过去的五年中，他们每年都可以获得6%的回报。如果基本数据仍然显示出长期可持续增长，那么目前的抛售可能会是一个值得考虑的机会。我觉得审视长期的股价作为企业绩效的替代品非常有趣。但是为了真正获得见解，我们需要考虑其他信息。例如，我们已经发现了Kellanova公司的2个警示信号，您应该注意。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
当然，您可能在其他地方找到一家出色的企业进行投资。因此，请查看我们预计将实现盈利增长的公司的免费列表。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
请注意，本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈？关于内容有所顾虑？直接和我们联系。或者，发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，只使用公正的方法论，我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议，也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意，我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈？关于内容有所顾虑？直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。