Why The S&P 500 Is Set For A Strong Second Half: 'Don't Give Up On The Bull Market Yet,' Says Analyst
Why The S&P 500 Is Set For A Strong Second Half: 'Don't Give Up On The Bull Market Yet,' Says Analyst
After an excellent first half of the year — with the S&P 500 up 14.5% — investors and traders are now wondering how the U.S. stock market will perform in the second half of 2024.
在一年的优秀上半年之后,标准普尔500指数上涨14.5%,投资者和交易者现在想知道美国股市将如何在2024年下半年表现。
Moreover, the million-dollar question is whether — after a nearly 60% rally over the past twenty-one months — it's time to take chips off the table and secure profits.
此外,百万美元的问题是,在过去21个月里接近60%的涨幅后,是时候从桌子上拿走筹码并确保利润了吗。
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group LLC, has little doubts and advises investors: "Don't give up on the bull market yet."
Carson Group LLC的首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick毫无疑问,并建议投资者:“别放弃牛市。”
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted double-digit returns in the first half of the year 23 times (excluding 2024). Historically, these instances have often led to continued positive performance for the remainder of the year.
自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数在23次(不包括2024年)上半年中发布了两位数的回报率。历史上,这些实例经常导致剩余时间的继续积极表现。
S&P 500 Historical Performance Analysis
标准普尔500指数的历史表现分析
When the S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), achieves a year-to-date (YTD) return of more than 10% by mid-year, it tends to perform well in the subsequent months.
当标准普尔500指数,由SPDR标准普尔500ETF信托(NYSE: SPY)追踪,实现了超过10%的年初至今回报率时,它往往在随后的几个月内表现良好。
On average, the index sees a 1.5% return over the next three months.
平均而言,指数在接下来的三个月内会看到1.5%的回报率。
Notably, 65.2% of the time, the returns are positive during this period. In contrast, the average return for all years from 1950 to 2023 is only 0.6% over the next three months, with 60.8% of the years showing positive returns.
值得注意的是,在此期间有65.2%的时间回报是正面的。相比之下,从1950年到2023年的所有年份的平均回报率仅为接下来的三个月内的0.6%,其中60.8%的年份显示出正回报。
The contrast becomes more pronounced when examining the performance for the rest of the year. After a strong first half with double-digit gains, the S&P 500 averages a 7.7% return for the remainder of the year, with positive returns occurring 82.6% of the time.
在考虑下半年的表现时,对比变得更加明显。经过双位数的强劲上半年之后,标准普尔500指数平均为余下的一年带来了7.7%的回报率,82.6%的时间回报是正面的。
In comparison, the average return — for the rest of the year across all years — is just 4.8%, with a positive return frequency of 71.6%.
相比之下,所有年份在全年的表现,从现在起只有4.8%的平均回报率,正回报频率为71.6%。
The full-year performance in years when the S&P 500 posts a greater than 10% return by mid-year is particularly striking. The average full-year return in such instances is 25.1%, with the index delivering positive returns 100% of the time.
在标准普尔500指数中年初至今回报率超过10%的年份中,全年表现尤其惊人。这样的情况下,平均全年回报率为25.1%,指数全年提供100%的正回报。
This is significantly higher than the average full-year return of 9.3% in typical years, where the positive return rate stands at 71.6%. This stark difference highlights the exceptional performance of the S&P 500 in years that start strong.
这比典型年份的平均全年回报率9.3%高得多,正回报率为71.6%。这种鲜明差异凸显了标准普尔500指数在表现强劲的年份中的卓越表现。
Recent Trends
最近趋势
In recent years, similar patterns have been observed. For instance, in 2023, the S&P 500 recorded a 15.9% YTD return by mid-year. Although the following three months saw a slight dip of -3.6%, the historical data suggests potential for recovery and growth in the remaining months.
在最近的几年中,观察到了类似的模式。例如,在2023年,标准普尔500指数在年中录得了15.9%的年初至今回报率。尽管接下来的三个月看到了轻微的下跌-3.6%,但历史数据表明其余时间存在恢复和增长的潜力。
The years 2019 and 2021 also serve as examples where the S&P 500 continued to perform well in the second half after a strong mid-year performance. In 2019, the rest of the year saw a 9.8% gain, and in 2021, the index grew by 7.2% in the latter half.
2019年和2021年也是标准普尔500指数在表现强劲的下半年持续表现良好的例子。在2019年,余下的一年实现了9.8%的增长,在2021年,指数在后半年增长了7.2%。
Read now:
立即阅读:
- Goldman Sachs: 10 Reasons Why Stock Risks Rise In The Second Half Of 2024
- 高盛:股票风险上升的10个原因(2024年下半年)