Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
Shell's Q2 2024 Outlook: Stable Production and Earnings Across Segments
The following is an update to the second quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on August 1, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
以下是2024年第二季度展望的更新，概述了我们对第二季度的当前预期。所提供的展望可能与实际2024年第二季度业绩有所不同，而且应根据将于2024年8月1日发布的这些结果进行最终确定。除非另有说明，否则所有展望声明均不包括确定的项目。
See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
有关历史数据，请参见附录。
Integrated Gas
集成燃料币
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 940 - 980 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.8 - 7.2 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 - 1.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q2'23, but lower compared to Q1'24 due to seasonality. | ||
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的EBITDA： | ||
| 生产量（千桶当量/日） | 940 - 980 | |
| 液化天然气成交量（百万吨） | 6.8 - 7.2 | |
| 基础运营支出 | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| 调整后收益： | ||
| 税前折旧 | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| 税收成本 | 0.8 - 1.1 | |
| 其他考虑: | ||
| 交易和优化业务预计将与Q2'23保持一致，但与Q1'24相比由于季节性因素而有所下降。 | ||
Upstream
“我们相信我们在Upstream的申请将有助于Foremost潜在的最大化流动性，并提高潜在股东的价格发现，使其接触到新的国际股东群体，”Foremost锂矿总裁兼首席执行官Jason Barnard说，“Upstream是一个拥有完全监管的全球交易应用，受众是那些不受地域或货币限制的投资者，通常是在U.S.或加拿大上市的证券的国际交易过程比较困难的地区。Upstream将是一个出色的工具，可以接触到一个尚未开发的潜在新股东的国际市场。”
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,720 - 1,820 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 1.8 - 2.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2'24 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2'24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | ||
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的EBITDA： | ||
| 生产量（千桶当量/日） | 1720 - 1820 | |
| 基础运营支出 | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| 调整后收益： | ||
| 税前折旧 | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| 税收成本 | 1.8 - 2.6 | |
| 其他考虑: | ||
| 在Q2'24中，合营企业和联营企业的利润/（亏损）预计将达到约2亿美元。Q2'24勘探井注销预计将达到约2亿美元。 | ||
Marketing
市场营销
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,700 - 3,100 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的EBITDA： | ||
| 销售量（千桶/日） | 2700 - 3100 | |
| 基础运营支出 | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
| 调整后收益： | ||
| 税前折旧 | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
| 税收成本 | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| 其他考虑: | ||
| 市场营销结果预计与Q1'24持平。 | ||
Chemicals & Products
化学品及产品
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Indicative refining margin | $8/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $155/tonne | Chemicals sub segment Adjusted Earnings are expected to be close to break-even in Q2'24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 91% - 95% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 78% - 82% | |
| Underlying opex | 1.9 - 2.3 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.7 - 0.9 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q1'24. | ||
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的EBITDA： | ||
| 指示炼油利润 | $8/桶 | |
| 指示化学品利润 | $155/吨 | 化学品子业务预计在Q2'24接近盈亏平衡的调整后盈利。 |
| 炼油厂利用率 | 91% - 95% | |
| 化学品利用率 | 78% - 82% | |
| 基础运营支出 | 1.9 - 2.3 | |
| 调整后收益： | ||
| 税前折旧 | 0.7 - 0.9 | |
| 税收成本 | 0.1 - 0.5 | |
| 其他考虑: | ||
| 交易与优化业务预计与Q1'24年相当。 | ||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
可再生能源和能源解决方案
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的收益 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
Corporate
公司
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| 调整后的收益 | (0.7) - (0.5) |
Shell Group
壳牌集团
| $ billions | Q2'24 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | ||
| Tax paid | 3.1 - 3.9 | |
| Derivative movements | (2) - 2 | Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
| Working capital | (2) - 2 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
| Non-cash post tax impairments of $1.5 - $2 billion are expected, and mainly include the Singapore Chemicals & Products assets ($0.6 - $0.8 billion) as well as Rotterdam HEFA ($0.6 - $1.0 billion), which is reported in the Marketing segment. These items are reported as identified items. | ||
| 十亿美元 | Q2'24前景 | 评论 |
| CFFO: | ||
| 已支付税款 | 3.1-3.9 | |
| 衍生物运动 | （2）-2 | 衍生物运动和营运资本估计固有的不确定性范围很大。 |
| 营运资本 | （2）-2 | |
| 其他壳牌集团考虑因素: | ||
| 预计会产生15亿至20亿的非现金税后减值，主要包括新加坡化学品和产品资产（6亿至8亿美元）以及报告在营销领域的鹿特丹HEFA（6亿至10亿美元）等其他项目。这些项目被报告为确认的项目。 | ||
Guidance
指导
The 'Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
“季度数据手册”包括指示的炼油利润、化学品利润和全年价格和利润敏感性指南（链接）。
Consensus
共识
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 25, 2024.
按报告细分、Shell集团一级的经调整后盈利（Adjusted Earnings）和经调整后息税折旧及摊销前利润（Adjusted EBITDA）的季度共识数据和Vara Research管理的Shell集团现金净流入，预计将于2024年7月25日发布。
Appendix
附录
Indicative Margins
指示利润率
For Integrated Gas Q1'24 realised prices have been restated. There is no impact of this revision on previously
reported segment financials and other key performance indicators.
对于综合气体，2024年第一季度的实现价格已经重新调整。这次修订对以前报告的业务部门财务和其他关键业绩指标没有影响。
报告的业务部门财务和其他主要业绩指标。
| Integrated Gas Realised Prices | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Restated |
| Liquids ($/bbl) | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| Gas ($/thousand scf) | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| 综合气体实现价格 | Q1'24 | 2024年Q1重申 |
| 液体（美元/桶） | 72.72 | 67.29 |
| 燃料币/千立方英尺 | 8.86 | 7.84 |
| Chemicals & Products | Q1'24 | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $12/bbl | $8/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $150/tonne | $155/tonne |
| 化学品及产品 | Q1'24 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 指示炼油利润 | $12/桶 | $8/桶 |
| 指示化学品利润 | $150/吨 | $155/吨 |
Volume Data
成交量数据
| Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 QPR Outlook | Q2'24 Updated Outlook | |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 992 | 920 - 980 | 940 - 980 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.6 | 6.8 - 7.4 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,872 | 1,630 - 1,830 | 1,720 - 1,820 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,763 | 2,700 - 3,200 | 2,700 - 3,100 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 91% | 87% - 95% | 91% - 95% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 73% | 72% - 80% | 78% - 82% |
| 2024年第一季度调整后 | 2024年第二季度QPR展望 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 | |
| 集成燃料币 | |||
| 生产量（千桶当量/日） | 992 | 920 - 980 | 940 - 980 |
| 液化天然气成交量（百万吨） | 7.6 | 6.8 - 7.4 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| “我们相信我们在Upstream的申请将有助于Foremost潜在的最大化流动性，并提高潜在股东的价格发现，使其接触到新的国际股东群体，”Foremost锂矿总裁兼首席执行官Jason Barnard说，“Upstream是一个拥有完全监管的全球交易应用，受众是那些不受地域或货币限制的投资者，通常是在U.S.或加拿大上市的证券的国际交易过程比较困难的地区。Upstream将是一个出色的工具，可以接触到一个尚未开发的潜在新股东的国际市场。” | |||
| 生产量（千桶当量/日） | 1,872 | 1630 - 1830 | 1720 - 1820 |
| 市场营销 | |||
| 销售量（千桶/日） | 2,763 | 2700 - 3200 | 2700 - 3100 |
| 化学品及产品 | |||
| 炼油厂利用率 | 91% | 87% - 95% | 91% - 95% |
| 化学品利用率 | 73% | 72% - 80% | 78% - 82% |
Underlying Opex
基础营业费用
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.0 | ||
| Research and development | 0.2 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| Less: Identified Items | (0.1) | ||
| Underlying Opex | 9.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| Upstream | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| Marketing | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Chemicals & Products | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 - 2.3 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 十亿美元 | Q1'24 | 2024年第一季度调整后 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 生产和制造费用 | 5.8 | ||
| 销售、分销和管理费用 | 3.0 | ||
| 研发 | 0.2 | ||
| 营业费用 (Opex) | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| 扣除已确定的项目 | (0.1) | ||
| 基础营业费用 | 9.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 综合天然气 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| 上游 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| 营销 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| 化学品和产品 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 - 2.3 |
| 可再生能源和能源解决方案 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
折旧、筛选和摊销
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.2 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| Upstream | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| Marketing | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 - 0.7 |
| Chemicals & Products | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | — | 0.1 |
| 十亿美元 | Q1'24 | 2024年第一季度调整后 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 折旧、筛选和摊销 | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| 扣除已确定的项目 | 0.2 | ||
| 税前折旧（根据调整后） | 5.7 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 综合天然气 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 上游 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| 市场营销 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 - 0.7 |
| 化学品和产品 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| 可再生能源和能源解决方案 | — | 0.1 |
Tax Charge
税收
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.5) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 4.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| Upstream | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 - 2.6 |
| Marketing | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| Chemicals & Products | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.5 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | — |
| 十亿美元 | Q1'24 | 2024年第一季度调整后 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 税收支出 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| 减：确定性项目和供应调整成本 | (0.5) | ||
| 税收支出（调整后） | 4.1 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 综合天然气 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 上游 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 - 2.6 |
| 营销 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| 化学品和产品 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.5 |
| 可再生能源和能源解决方案 | 0.1 | — |
Adjusted Earnings
调整后的收益
The "Adjusted Earnings" measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell's financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 1st Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
“调整后收益”指标旨在通过消除油价变化对存货账面价值的影响和消除确定性项目的影响，促进对壳牌的财务表现进行期间性比较。在某些情况下，这些项目是由外部因素驱动的，在某些情况下，可能会单独或共同阻碍对壳牌财务业绩进行期间性比较的理解。该指标不包括应归属于非控制权益的收益。有关详细信息，请参见2024年第一季度未经审计的业绩报告（链接）
| $ billions | Q1'24 | Q1'24 Adjusted | Q2'24 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.3) | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (0.6) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 7.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| Corporate | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7) - (0.5) |
| 十亿美元 | Q1'24 | 2024年第一季度调整后 | 2024年第二季度更新展望 |
| 归属于壳牌股份有限公司股东的收入/(亏损) | 7.4 | 7.4 | |
| 加：归属于壳牌股份有限公司股东的库存成本调整 | (-0.3) | ||
| 减：归属于壳牌股份有限公司股东的特定项目 | (0.6) | ||
| 调整后的收益 | 7.7美元 | ||
| 其中： | |||
| 可再生能源和能源解决方案 | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.5) - 0.1 |
| 公司的 | (0.4) | (0.5) | (0.7) - (0.5) |